|
Jan 05, 2021
The consumer credit market expanded in December, increasing by $77 billion, a 0.55% month to month change. The consumer credit market is now $14.1 trillion in outstanding debt and is 3.98% higher than where it was last year. The year over year growth increased from last month as strong overall balance growth continues. While delinquency rates increased, charge off rates did not and the increase in delinquencies is partly explained by seasonality and partially by previous stimulus fading. With the passage of the stimulus bill, elevated levels of delinquencies and defaults do not seem likely.
|
|
Dec 22, 2020
U.S. consumers turned more pessimistic in December as another wave of confirmed COVID-19 cases has delivered a blow to the labor market. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped from a revised 92.9 in November to 88.6 in December, well below either our or consensus expectations. The decline was attributed to a drop in consumers' assessment of the present situation, as it fell from 105.9 to 90.3. Expectations rose in December, rising from 84.3 to 87.5. There is a deterioration in the labor market differential, adding to the laundry list of signs that the labor market deteriorated in December.
|
|
Dec 21, 2020
The Moody's Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate declined 18 basis points to 7.59% in November. The decrease this month is thanks to modifications for loan relief, not because delinquency trends are improving. November's decline stemmed mainly from delinquencies in retail and hotels. All subcomponents decreased this month except for multifamily and self-storage. Meanwhile, all regional delinquency rates declined except the West's delinquency rate.
|
|
Dec 18, 2020
Leading economic indicators for November packed on another increase despite signs elsewhere in the economy that the recovery is slowing. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index ticked up 0.6% in November to 109.1, a touch above the consensus expectations. This reading follows a 0.8% increase in October and a 0.7% rise in September. The coincident index rose 0.2%.
|
|
Dec 10, 2020
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped from 716,000 to 853,000 in the week ended December 5. New filings are not as reliable as they were in the past. The Government Accountability Office issued a report that claims are being inflated by fraud and a backlog. Outside of this, claims can swing wildly this time of year because of seasonal adjustment issues around the Thanksgiving holiday. Continuing claims rose from 5.527 million to 5.757 million in the week ended November 28. The number of those receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance rose by nearly 140,000 in the week ended December 5 to 427,609.
|
|
Dec 09, 2020
An unexpected and large build in crude oil inventories will push down on oil prices. Commercial crude oil inventories jumped up by 15.2 million barrels in the week ended December 4, far exceeding consensus expectations of an 849,000-barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels, beating analyst expectations that stocks would build by 2 million barrels. Distillate inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels, well above analyst predictions of a 789,000-barrel increase. Refinery capacity utilization rose to 79.9% from 78.2%. Over the last four weeks, total U.S. oil demand was 7.5% lower than the same period last year.
|
|
Dec 02, 2020
Estimates of U.S. unit vehicle sales from Autodata cooled in November. Annualized seasonally adjusted units sold were 15.9 million, a monthly decrease of 3% after revisions. The number of units sold was down 6.9% from a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted annualized unit sales of light trucks and SUVs dropped by 4.3% from October, almost identical to the 4.2% drop compared with November 2019. Car sales were up slightly month over month, rising 1.2% from October, but remained down 14.2% from November 2019. The slight pullback in sales was not as bad as it could have been given the economic pain that continues to be felt across many areas of the U.S.
|
|
Dec 01, 2020
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from 395.1 to 385.2 in the week ended November 27. Fiscal policy uncertainty remained high, as odds of additional fiscal stimulus before President-elect Biden is inaugurated have dropped. This will weigh on the economy this quarter and early next. The Fed's new forward guidance hasn't impacted uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, which remains low.
|
|
Nov 25, 2020
Mortgage applications jumped by 3.9% in the week ending November 20, reversing the 0.3% decrease in the previous week. The purchase index rose by 3.5%, joined by a 4.5% surge in the refinance index. The contract rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage shed 7 basis points from the previous week, to 2.92%. Refinance and purchase applications are well above year-ago and pre-pandemic levels. Despite the resurgence of COVID-19, demand for new housing is set to continue growing into next year.
|
|
Nov 16, 2020
The intensifying COVID-19 pandemic is weighing heavily on global business sentiment. Assessments of present conditions are especially weak, with the percent of positive responses close to the 20% threshold consistent with a global recession. Expectations regarding prospects through the spring are only a bit better. Responses to the nine questions posed in the global sentiment survey have been net negative for the past nine months; this is nearly as long as during the financial crisis in 2008-2009.
|
|
Nov 13, 2020
U.S. consumer sentiment slipped in November to its lowest level since August as the increase in COVID-19 infections seemingly outweighed any wave of election relief. The preliminary reading from the University of Michigan was 77, down nearly 5 points from 81.8 in October. Confidence remains down about 24 points from February. The move was driven by the expectations component, which fell 7.9 points from October. The present conditions index fell 0.1 point. Inflation expectations rose. Median 12-month inflation expectations rose to 2.8% from October's 2.6%. Five-year expectations rose from 2.4% to 2.6%.
|
|
Nov 13, 2020
The Moody's Analytics & CNN Business Back-to-Normal Index ticked up to 81.6 from a revised 80.5 the week before. The increase leaves the U.S. a couple of points below mid-October's high of 83.4 but ends a two-week streak of declines. With daily infections of COVID-19 now twice as high as July's peak, it's hard to imagine economic activity getting much closer to normal in the near term.
|
|
