|
Jan 19, 2021
Despite improving economic prospects for later this year, the recovery faces a difficult winter.
|
|
Jan 17, 2021
Our U.S. offices will reopen Tuesday, January 19.
|
|
Jan 15, 2021
Lockdowns contributed to the divergence of categories that lost and gained.
|
|
Jan 15, 2021
A drop in December retail sales cuts into our tracking estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.
|
|
Jan 15, 2021
Vaccine distribution logistics dictate the speed of resolving the pandemic and economic recovery.
|
|
Jan 15, 2021
Where are retail trade and e-commerce now, and where are they going?
|
|
Jan 15, 2021
Our estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth fell from 7.1% to 6% at an annualized rate.
|
|
Jan 15, 2021
In Europe, concerns are mounting about the government crisis in Italy.
|
|
Jan 15, 2021
With a Democratic majority in the Senate, we expect a larger aid package this quarter.
|
|
Jan 15, 2021
With this additional economic support, real GDP growth would be robust at nearly 8% this year and almost 4% next.
|
|
Jan 14, 2021
The Fed could keep rates unchanged for longer than we anticipate.
|
|
Jan 14, 2021
The Southwest is the latest epicenter, but the slow vaccine rollout is a concern everywhere.
|
|
Jan 13, 2021
Some credit rating upgrades were partly due to new loan programs.
|
|
Jan 13, 2021
New fiscal policy assumptions cause GDP growth to hit 5% this year and next.
|
|
Jan 13, 2021
Price pressures remained on a relatively even keel in December.
|
|
Jan 13, 2021
Our forecast of 5% GDP growth this year and next is even more above the consensus.
|
|
Jan 13, 2021
The PHLX index of oil-service company stocks is up by 21.2% since the end of 2020.
|
|
Jan 13, 2021
Along with taxes, small businesses say that a lack of qualified labor is one of the biggest problems they now face.
|
|
Jan 12, 2021
Anticipation of additional fiscal support is causing markets to adjust their economic expectations.
|
|
Jan 11, 2021
The yield edged up to 1.15%, which already bests the 1.1% forecasted yearly average.
|
|
Jan 11, 2021
Lots of pent-up demand is set to be released for consumer services.
|
|
Jan 11, 2021
It doesn't appear that the pandemic has caused a huge change in people's willingness to travel, raising our confidence for a spending rebound.
|
|
Jan 11, 2021
Core PCE price index inflation will determine if alarm is justified.
|
|
Jan 11, 2021
The outcome of the Georgia Senate races and Democratic control of the federal government have a significant bearing on prospects for fiscal policy.
|
|
Jan 11, 2021
A downbeat jobs report headlined last week's key economic data releases.
|
|
Jan 10, 2021
Expected fiscal support will quickly boost the economy, pushing real GDP growth to more than 5% for all of 2021.
|
|
Jan 08, 2021
Current holdings of M2-type liquid assets exceed normalized holdings by roughly $3.5 trillion.
|
|
Jan 08, 2021
The enormous drop in restaurant employment weighed heavily on the job market in December.
|
|
Jan 08, 2021
Problems in the labor market in December show that Canada's economy is moving in the wrong direction.
|
|
Jan 08, 2021
It is difficult to forecast what happens in DC.
|
|
Jan 08, 2021
Now that Democrats have control of the U.S. Senate, more economic aid is likely.
|
|
Jan 08, 2021
COVID-19 infection rates are running high in Europe.
|
|
Jan 08, 2021
Vaccines and fiscal stimulus will provide a big boost to the labor market later this year.
|
|
Jan 07, 2021
The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 outperformed the general market.
|
|
Jan 07, 2021
The real trade deficit is the widest it's been since the inception of the data in 1994.
|
|
Jan 07, 2021
Fiscal stimulus and the shift in consumer spending could cause the deficit to remain wide and cut into GDP.
|
|
Jan 07, 2021
Broad patterns still hold, but economic effects carried the most weight in mid-year estimates.
|
|
Jan 07, 2021
We look for nonfarm employment to have declined by 25,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.8%.
|
|
Jan 06, 2021
In 2020's final quarter, 15 upgrades were at least partly ascribed to infusions of equity capital.
|
|
Jan 06, 2021
The Georgia Senate elections signal that more stimulus is likely this quarter.
|
|
Jan 06, 2021
Don't fret too much about the acceleration in the first half of the year; it will be transitory.
|
|
Jan 06, 2021
The Saudi-led blockade of Qatar has been lifted but regional trade is likely to evolve slowly.
|
|
Jan 05, 2021
During 2020, net downgrades rose to 368 before dropping to -22.
|
|
Jan 05, 2021
ISM manufacturing index beats expectations in December.
|
|
Jan 05, 2021
An effective vaccination effort could result in a speedy recovery for hard-hit jobs that rely on in-person interaction.
|
|
Jan 05, 2021
The economy entered the new year still struggling under the weight of the pandemic.
|
|
Jan 05, 2021
Tuesday will put to bed the 2020 election cycle, with potential consequences for the baseline forecast.
|
|
Jan 05, 2021
Until the vaccines are widely distributed, the economy will struggle.
|
|
Jan 04, 2021
The Baa industrial yield ended 2020 at its lowest level since August 1952.
|
|
Jan 04, 2021
New year but same economic and public health crises remain.
|
|
Jan 04, 2021
Inflation expectations are on the move and could push the 10-year higher.
|
|
Jan 04, 2021
Some long-running trends were reversed, others accelerated.
|
|
Jan 04, 2021
Our preliminary forecast is for nonfarm employment to have declined 25,000 between November and December.
|
|
Jan 04, 2021
For the first time in a long time, risks to our baseline outlook appear more skewed to the upside than to the downside.
|
|
Dec 31, 2020
We will be back on Monday.
|
|
Dec 31, 2020
Overall exports fell 7% versus the preceding five-year trend.
|
|
Dec 31, 2020
Our tracking estimate of the current quarter increases from 6.5% to 7.1% at an annualized rate.
|
|
Dec 30, 2020
The path of the U.S. economy remains tied to the pandemic and distribution of the vaccines.
|
|
Dec 29, 2020
If the vaccine rollout sticks to script, the pandemic should be receding and the economy ramping-up in the second half of 2021.
|
|
Dec 29, 2020
With the COVID-19 relief and government funding bill, fiscal policy error is no longer a risk.
|
|
Dec 29, 2020
The economy remains in a precarious position.
|
|
Dec 29, 2020
Seasonal price decreases from early fall have accelerated in November and December.
|
|
Dec 28, 2020
Some changes to our baseline forecast are likely needed.
|
|
Dec 28, 2020
The key data will be initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits; they likely rose.
|
|
Dec 28, 2020
There is pent-up demand for activities consumers have been avoiding, and higher-income households have banked considerable financial firepower.
|
|
Dec 24, 2020
We will return on Monday, December 28.
|
|
Dec 24, 2020
The U.K. and European Union agree to a trade deal but it won't eliminate disruptions.
|
|
Dec 23, 2020
Trump throws wrench in stimulus agreement while there was a flurry of U.S. economic data.
|
|
Dec 23, 2020
The composition of growth is also shifting as rebuilding inventories will provide a big boost.
|
|
Dec 23, 2020
Trends in hospital strain showed strong correlation with November employment growth.
|
|
Dec 22, 2020
The estimate of these assets this year bodes well for 2021's capital spending and hiring activity.
|
|
Dec 22, 2020
Consumer confidence index drops in December, but there's no change to the spending forecast.
|
|
Dec 22, 2020
Vaccine approvals reduced the greatest risks for the Canadian economy, but new risks are appearing.
|
|
Dec 22, 2020
An increase in the labor force participation rate next year will keep the unemployment rate high.
|
|
Dec 22, 2020
Sales are still among the strongest since 2006, and lean inventories aren't hurting too much.
|
|
Dec 21, 2020
September's 12-month moving average of 2.5% was the lowest since June 2010's 1.6%.
|
|
Dec 21, 2020
The latest round of stimulus will probably require us to make minor tweaks to the baseline forecast.
|
|
Dec 21, 2020
Consumer confidence and home sales highlight a holiday-shortened week.
|
|
Dec 21, 2020
Our methodology for finding a suitable economic replacement.
|
|
Dec 21, 2020
The agreement on additional fiscal stimulus is encouraging given signs of a waning recovery.
|
|
Dec 21, 2020
The labor market is delivering smaller and smaller gains as the recovery progresses.
|
|
Dec 18, 2020
Note how each of the three previous recessions coincided with a contraction of loan debt and an expansion of bond debt.
|
|
Dec 18, 2020
There was no deal yet on either stimulus or funding; the latter is needed to avert a partial shutdown.
|
|
Dec 18, 2020
Vaccines are expected to be distributed by the end of Q3 next year, but risks are substantial.
|
|
Dec 18, 2020
In Europe, Brexit talks are extended again.
|
|
Dec 18, 2020
Past strength from technology and finance companies is looking as though it could be a liability.
|
|
Dec 18, 2020
The Next Generation EU scheme will make €750 billion of stimulus available.
|
|
Dec 18, 2020
Vaccines provide upside risk, but the recovery remains uncertain and uneven.
|
|
Dec 17, 2020
Ongoing COVID-19 problems include a drop in sales and incomes.
|
|
Dec 17, 2020
Initial claims have risen by 169,000 over the past two weeks, raising odds of a drop in employment.
|
|
Dec 17, 2020
In the age of COVID-19, a mild weekend matters more and snowstorms pack less of a punch.
|
|
Dec 17, 2020
The recent surge in income is entirely government driven.
|
|
Dec 17, 2020
Will the money come from taxpayers over time funding federal debt or more immediately in tax hikes and austerity measures?
|
|
Dec 16, 2020
The Fed believes the arrival of a vaccine will accelerate the economy during 2021's second half.
|
|
Dec 16, 2020
The Fed may not taper its asset purchases next year.
|
|
Dec 16, 2020
Performance remains robust despite an unemployment rate above 6.5%.
|
|
Dec 16, 2020
The storm is unlikely to be a noticeable drag on Q4 GDP.
|
|
Dec 16, 2020
Declines in retail sales were broad-based and will likely cut into our tracking estimate of GDP.
|
|
Dec 16, 2020
We explore how the pandemic has affected movement across U.S. geographies, jobs and industries.
|
|
Dec 16, 2020
This year's pandemic relief had an enormous impact on the economy.
|
|
