NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

Jobs Grow Briskly Despite Subpar Revenues and Profits
The labor market will not be a primary driver of consumer price inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Bad Day for the Doom and Gloomers
November was a blowout month for job growth and the trend is starting to improve.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

FOMC Preview: According to Plan
Past rate cuts are helping, but the Fed can now sit tight for a while.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Pressure On as Next Tariff Deadline Nears
On Brexit, there is market optimism as Conservatives lead in U.K. election polls.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2019

Lower Rates More than Offset Lower Profits
A120 bps year-over-year plunge by the long-term Baa industrial-company bond yield has helped.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: Q4 U.S. GDP Headed in the Right Direction
GDP is now tracking at 1.9%; Friday brings the U.S. November employment report.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of November Employment
We look for a 163,000 net gain in U.S. nonfarm employment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2019

Q4 GDP Estimate Still Climbing
U.S. net exports will add more to growth than previously anticipated.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: ADP, Nonmanufacturing Index Point to Slowing Growth
U.S. private-sector hiring is no longer the hare with 2020 appearing to be the year of the tortoise.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2019

Record Slow Growth for 16 to 64 Age Cohort Reins In Job Growth
The inexorable aging of the U.S. is likely to be accompanied by a slower underlying rate of growth for U.S. business activity.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2019

Canada Outlook: Not Out of the Woods Yet
Despite investment's strong third quarter, consumption will still need to carry GDP growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

Medians Suggest Averages Mask a Narrowly Focused Erosion of High-Yield Credit Quality
April 2014's $79.5 billion still serves as the zenith for worldwide high-yield bond offerings.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

Economic Roundup: Here We Go Again
Trump ratchets up talk of tariffs and hints the deal with China can wait until after the election.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

Trump Sticks With His Playbook, Fed Changes Its
The president is talking tough on trade, but the central bank won't ease unless there is a material change to the outlook.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

2020 Election Tracker Update: Trump's Approval Brushes Off the Inquiry
The president's re-election chances are bolstered by many political and economic factors.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: An Economy to Be Thankful For
The U.S. economic expansion has remained intact despite numerous headwinds.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

Higher Treasury Yields Deepened Monday's Equity Selloff
The odd combination triggered a 1.14% daily plunge by the PHLX index of housing share prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Will Not Make a Quick Turn
ISM index has remained below its neutral threshold of 50 for four consecutive months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 2, 2019
Though the Fed's balance sheet is now increasing, it doesn't mean that stock prices will also increase.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

Fewer U.S. Youth Will Hamper Holiday Sales
Because you can't make America young again, you can't make American retail sales great again.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

Holiday Sales Will Slow With Fewer U.S. Youth
Because you can't make America young again, you can't make American retail sales great again.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2019

Happy Thanksgiving
The U.S. offices of Economy.com will be closed Thursday and Friday, November 28 and 29.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer May Not Have to Do It Alone
Business investment is showing signs of picking up, but you should keep expectations in check.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Impetus for U.S.-China Trade Deal Has Increased on Both Sides
A phase-one deal has yet to be signed and further progress has been scant.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2019

High Times for High Yield
The market value of U.S. common stock rose by 0.23% to a new high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 26, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fourth Quarter Looks Slightly Better
U.S. Q4 GDP is tracking at 1%, but risks are weighted to the upside.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

Plunge by Baa Industrial Yield Makes U.S. Equity Market Surge By 17.5%
A deep 129-basis points dive by the 10-year Treasury yield fuels market rise.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

Economic Roundup: Slow Start to Busy, Holiday-Shortened Week
Global business confidence continues to be in the dumps.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Keep It Together
Low interest rates have everyone feeling good.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 25, 2019
The trend in initial jobless claims has clearly softened a bit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Warning Signs Emerge
The share of metro area output associated with late-cycle expansions could signal a tipping point.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Little Fizzle After No Summer Sizzle
Monthly GDP suggests that the economy improved in September.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 22, 2019

Elevated Leverage Ratio Signals Above-Average Credit Risk
Nonfinancial-corporate debt has risen to a record-high 46.5% of GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 22, 2019

Canada Weekly: HELOC, How Are You?
Nonmortgage lending needs a new name given its composition.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 22, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Another Trade War Deadline Approaches
December tariffs put U.S. consumers in the crosshairs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

Covenant-Lite Loans May Weaken Predictive Power of Downgrades per Upgrade
They also may facilitate the liquidation of assets well before a business files for bankruptcy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Existing-Home Sales Improve, but Keep an Eye on Claims
Initial claims have risen recently, but they are not raising a red flag yet.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

Déjà Vu All Over Again in Washington DC
Congress punted on the budget, setting up a potential Christmas shutdown once again.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

U.S. Housing Outlook: A Sustainable Climb
Reduced financing costs have helped first-time homebuyers and new-home buyers the most.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

Reading the Tea Leaves in U.S. Initial Claims
Even without the UAW boost, November job growth would be sufficient.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Credit Markets Remain Sanguine About the Business Outlook
The high-yield default rate is not a trustworthy leading indicator of a recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed's Deal With the Economy
If it holds up and inflation remains in check, the Fed will sit tight.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Where Brokerage Fee Cuts Will and Won't Impact U.S. Inflation
Drop in trading commissions hurt the PPI but not the CPI.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Federal Welfare Spending and the Next Recession
The biggest risk is that lawmakers might fail to deliver enough stimulus.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Problems in the U.S. Factory Belt
The trade war and recent UAW strike have hurt manufacturing employment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Housing-Related Sales Show a Lagged Response to 2018's Upturn by Interest Rates
The annual growth rate for general merchandise store sales slowed to 1.6% in January-October.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Starts to Bounce Back
The big surprise was the increase in permits, as it suggests an acceleration in housing starts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

U.S. Residential Investment Likely Will Add to Q4 GDP
Housing starts rose in October, and permits were encouraging.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: That's Going to Leave a Mark
New data cut into our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview: November 18, 2019
Housing reports highlight an otherwise light week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

Softening of Base Metals Prices Suggests Limited Upside for Treasury Yields
Treasury bond yields can decline without help from a worsened business outlook.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: Financial Markets Don't Share Businesses' Gloom
Easing in financial market conditions will provide a boost to the U.S. economy next year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 18, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: Economy Throttles Back
Consumers are the firewall as the tax cut boost has faded and the trade war takes a toll.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Profits Growth Likely If Rate of Capacity Utilization Climbs Higher
October's 0.2% monthly rise by core retail sales preserves the possibility of core business sales annual increase improving.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: That Sinking Feeling Is Q4 U.S. GDP
New data lowered our tracking estimate of growth in the current quarter from 1.2% to 0.6%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Beijing and Athens Meet
Xi Jinping was in Greece for talks with that country's president and prime minister.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Ouch! Q4 GDP Now Tracking 0.6%
U.S. retail sales, industrial production and business inventories were not kind to GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Canada Weekly: IMO Decode
New regulations in 2020 will hamper Canada's oil industry.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 14, 2019

High-Yield Bond Issuance Avoids Speculative Excess
The current distribution portends nothing worse than a mild rise by the default rate over the next 12 months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 14, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Day of Disappointments
China data fall short of expectations, while U.S. initial claims jump.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Low Inflation Expectations Imply Fed Can Be Quick With Rate Cut
The five-year TIPS contract now puts the expected annual rate of CPI inflation just under 1.6%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not Enough to Sway the Fed
Firming U.S. inflation will not divert the Federal Reserve from its current course.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Budget Deadlines on Collision Course With Impeachment Hearings
U.S. lawmakers must pass another short-term spending bill next week to prevent a shutdown.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Some Temporary U.S. Economy Drags Are Lifting
The resolution of the UAW strike should boost manufacturing in November and December.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

U.S. High-Yield Downgrade per Upgrade Ratio May Ease for Third Straight Quarter
The high-yield default rate of U.S. issuers rose from October 2018's 3.16% to October's 3.56%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

Trade Troubles on the Farm
Recent data highlight the extent of the trade war's damage to the U.S. farm sector.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: No Warning Bells
Minor disappointments indicate a slowing economy but are not a cause for alarm.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

Loan Spreads Remain Well Above Bond Spreads for High-Yield Credits
The average high-yield loan spread was 58 bps wider than Barclays average high-yield bond spread.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not Much to Like in U.K. Q3 GDP
The U.K. dodged a technical recession, but Brexit continues to hurt.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 11, 2019
Key data coming up include retail sales, consumer and producer prices, industrial production, and business inventories.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Lowest Ratio of Riskiest Bonds to Outstanding High-Yield Bonds Since 1987
Third-quarter 2019's $1.256 trillion of outstanding high-yield U.S. corporate bonds included $319 billion of bonds from the riskiest credit ratings.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Economic Roundup: 10-Year Is Streaking
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued its tear.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Canada Weekly: Trading Down
Cooling of international trade may trigger a slowdown despite strong Q2 growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Is the Fed Killing the Signal From the Yield Curve?
Long-term rates have risen, helping steepen the yield curve, but there could be a cost.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Global Outlook: Sinking in Uncertainty
Growth has slowed in 2019, and will remain below potential in 2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: 15 Asian Nations Agree to New Trade Pact
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership represents the world's largest trade deal.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Spreads Narrow for 71% of Yearly Advances by Broad Equity Market
An easing of recession risk has driven benchmark bond yields higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: Figuring Out U.S. Unemployment's Message
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: Figuring Out Unemployment's Message
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Updated U.S. Risk Matrix: A Little Less Threatening
There have been some positive developments with regard to the U.S.-China trade tensions and Brexit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

U.S. Investment-Grade Corporate-Bond Issuance Has Been Led by Single-A
These bonds have advanced by 28.4% annually to $396 billion in 2019.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Moving on From Late-Stage Expansion
We now put the economy at risk of a recession, but that does not mean it is imminent.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Road to Recession: A New Phase
The U.S. consumer is shouldering all the burden in preventing the slowing from turning into something worse.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Boeing's Impact on U.S. Growth
Issues with the 737 MAX are likely shaving tenths of a percentage point off GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: Is the Trade Tide Turning?
Net exports have a shot at adding to Q4 U.S. GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

No New Cycle Lows for Credit Spreads Despite Record Highs for U.S. Equity Market
The slowdown with the profits recession of 2015-2016 was more severe than the latest deceleration.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Fed Likely Done, for Now
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Fed Likely Down, for Now
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: No Tricks, Just Treats
Third-quarter output and October employment surprised to the upside.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

September Trade Deficit Sets Up Better for Q4 U.S. GDP
Fourth quarter growth is now tracking 1.2%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Student Loans and the Housing Market
While U.S. homeownership has fallen and student debt has risen, the causal link is ambiguous.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Stress-Testing States 2019
The overall results of the latest exercise relative to a year ago are unmistakably positive.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Solid U.S. Labor Market Implies Recent High-Yield Spread Is Not Too Thin
Three models generated a midpoint of 413 basis points for the high-yield bond spread.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: Don't Sleep on the SLOOS
Banks are tightening lending standards on C&I, but not enough to raise a red flag, yet.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Welcome to Economic View: Real Time
Economy.com has a new look, new features, and a new name.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Canada Risk Matrix: Trouble in Every Direction
The U.S.-China trade war remains at the forefront.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

2020 Election Tracker Update: Early Signs Point to Trump
Nonetheless, our forecast is fraught with a handful of wild cards.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Economic Roundup: Sometimes It's Good to Be Wrong
U.S. job growth was noticeably better than we expected in October.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Q4 U.S. GDP: One Is the Loneliest Number
We have begun tracking fourth-quarter growth, and it is not looking good.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Average U.S. Annual Increase for Those Over 80 Will Outpace Working-Age Cohort
Over the next 10 years, 20- to 64-year-olds are expected to increase by only 360K.

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