Setup News Ticker
Apr 10, 2020

Implied Default Risk Drops Despite Dismal Business Outlook
Bloomberg/Barclays speculative-grade bond yield plunged by 91 basis points. Analysis
Apr 10, 2020

Economic Roundup: COVID-19 Causes Record Drop in U.S. Airfare, Lodging Prices
Core CPI unexpectedly dropped in March and disinflationary pressures won't subside soon. Analysis
Apr 10, 2020

Our April 6 webinar was largely devoted to answering your questions. Analysis
Apr 10, 2020

Canada Weekly: OPEC (G-20) = -10 million?
Proposed supply cuts won't be enough to save Canada's oil industry. Analysis
Apr 10, 2020

Moody's Analytics COVID-19 Policy Tracker
Global policymakers have taken unprecedented measures to respond to the crisis. Analysis
Apr 10, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: A Tentative Oil Deal
The oil production agreement is not likely to overcome reduced global demand. Analysis
Apr 10, 2020

Global Outlook: Stimulus as Never Seen Before
Policymakers quickly grasped the gravity of the COVID-19 situation and went all in with their fiscal and monetary responses. Analysis
Apr 09, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Severe Recession Implied
Some have speculated that we could experience a depression. Analysis
Apr 09, 2020

Fed Expands Aid to Corporate Bonds and Loans
TALF-eligible collateral will now include the triple-A rated commercial MBSs and CLOs. Analysis
Apr 09, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Unemployment Rate Could Be as High as 16%
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits totaled 6.606 million last week. Analysis
Apr 09, 2020

Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation of the Current U.S. Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate now could be as high as 16%. Analysis
Apr 09, 2020

Fed Adds to Its Tools as Economy's Lender of Last Resort
It will provide $2.3 trillion in loans aimed at supporting businesses and households as well as state and local governments. Analysis
Apr 09, 2020

U.S. Schools' Non-Teaching Staff Feel the Pain
Classroom aides and others face layoffs in prolonged COVID-19 shutdowns. Analysis
Apr 08, 2020

U.S. Equities Now Top March 23 Low by 22.8%
The market value of U.S. common equity has increased by 6.2% during the second quarter. Analysis
Apr 08, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Minutes Mostly a Recap, but Hint of Extended Stay at 0%
The Fed will need to improve its forward guidance, but odds are it is not moving for a while. Analysis
Apr 08, 2020

The Essential Economy
A key segment of the U.S. workforce is at risk of furloughs and temporary layoffs. Analysis
Apr 08, 2020

U.S. Jobless Claims Poised to Keep Setting Records
Amid the COVID-19 crisis, we expect a third straight week of historic highs in unemployment insurance claims. Analysis
Apr 08, 2020

COVID-19: Top 10 Questions and Answers
How will the crisis fundamentally change how we live and work? Analysis
Apr 08, 2020

High-Yield Bond Offerings Imply Some Still Have a Taste for Risk
Further deterioration of corporate credit quality and more credit rating downgrades are likely. Analysis
Apr 07, 2020

Economic Roundup: Small Businesses Sound Alarm
NFIB survey showed 50% of small businesses could survive for no more than two months. Analysis
Apr 07, 2020

Canada Outlook: Forecast Update, Q2 and Beyond
Grim news abounds, but there's a glimmer of hope. Analysis
Apr 06, 2020

U.S. Equity Market Now Resides 18.6% Above March 23's Trough
The VIX fell to 45.24 points on Monday for its lowest close since March 5's 39.62 points. Analysis
Apr 06, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Economy Headed Down a Darker Path
Our April baseline will show a higher unemployment rate in Q2 and a larger decline in GDP. Analysis
Apr 06, 2020

The Daily Economic Toll of COVID-19 on the U.S.
Nearly 29% of output is now being lost due to lockdown orders. Analysis
Apr 06, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: The Second Shock Wave
Another week of data shows the mounting economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis
Apr 06, 2020

COVID-19 Will Be Disinflationary in the Near Term
The Fed will need to keep inflation expectations anchored. Analysis
Apr 06, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 6, 2020
Key data will be initial claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and producer and consumer prices. Analysis
Apr 06, 2020

U.S. Consumers Respond to Shutdowns, Stay-at-Home Orders
There is no evidence yet of a fundamental shift in behavior. Analysis
Apr 06, 2020

CECL and IFRS 9 Recommendations: Incorporating the March 2020 V2 Mid-cycle Economic Scenario Update
Users need to select the scenarios and weights that best represent their institution's view of a reasonable and supportable forecast. Analysis
Apr 03, 2020

Economic Roundup: That Pit in Your Stomach
U.S. employment dropped in March and this is just the tip of the iceberg. Analysis
Apr 03, 2020

What Happened to U.S. Employment in March?
The reality of the job losses was much more dire than we had expected. Analysis
Apr 03, 2020

Canada Weekly: How the Outbreak Compares
The COVID-19 crisis has not spared Canada. Analysis
Apr 03, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: COVID-19's Economic Fallout Is Felt Across the Globe
Leading data point to a historic decline in GDP across most of the major economies. Analysis
Apr 02, 2020

Baa-Grade Credit Risk Metrics Better Than Financial Crisis
The recent 290 bps spread for Baa1-grade bonds hardly resembled its 2008-2009 average. Analysis
Apr 02, 2020

Economic Roundup: A One-Two Punch
Jobless claims surge and vehicle sales plunge. Analysis
Apr 02, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker: Surging Claims Imply Severe Recession
New filings totaled 6.648 million in the week ended March 28. Analysis
Apr 02, 2020

COVID-19: Economic Scenarios Q&A
We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar. Analysis
Apr 02, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of March U.S. Employment
COVID-19 will only have a modest impact on last month's job numbers. Analysis
Apr 02, 2020

Coronavirus Infects the Commercial Paper Market
The CP markets shouldn't batter the economy too much, as long as financial markets stay afloat. Analysis
Apr 02, 2020

Quantifying the Regional Impact of COVID-19: An Update
Additional data and a methodological tweak move New York City to the top. Analysis
Apr 02, 2020

U.S. Initial Claims Point Toward a Surge in the Unemployment Rate in April
New filings over the past two weeks are more than total employment in Florida. Analysis
Apr 01, 2020

High-Yield Downgrades per Upgrade Jump in First Quarter
First-quarter 2020's issuance of high-yield bonds from U.S. companies grew by 45.0%. Analysis
Apr 01, 2020

Economic Roundup: Worse Than It Appears
The ISM manufacturing index fell slightly in March, but most of the details were very weak. Analysis
Apr 01, 2020

U.S. Census Day Arrives Full of Uncertainty
Household self-response rates could decrease the need for temporary workers. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

April Could Be Worse Than March for Business Activity
Though pent-up consumer demand could drive a V-shaped recovery. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

Economic Roundup: Recession as the Baseline Forecast
There is plenty of evidence that suggests the economy contracted in March and it will get worse. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

Forecasting COVID-19 Cases
An accurate forecast of the spread and duration of the disease is a critical component for estimating the economic impact of the virus. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

Will COVID-19 Overwhelm U.S. Hospitals?
A quantitative analysis of how the pandemic will play out in the U.S. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

Layoffs Are Surging, but Watch Hiring
Hiring normally moves the needle on job growth, and it's weakening. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

Under the Hood of the New U.S. Baseline Forecast
A significant and sudden recession is now the most likely scenario. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

Remote Work Will Not be Enough to Mitigate COVID-19 Impact
Even the technology of the day won't be enough to save the most vulnerable segments of the U.S. workforce. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Fundamentals Do a 180
Consumer fundamentals have changed dramatically, mostly to the bad. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: The First Shock Wave
The COVID-19 pandemic's toll is only beginning to appear in the hard data. Analysis
Mar 31, 2020

COVID-19: Policymakers Break Glass
Much more monetary and fiscal support will be needed until there is a medical solution to the virus. Analysis
Mar 30, 2020

March's IG Bond Issuance Adds to Its Record Pace
The month's bond offerings will be up by at least 74% year over year. Analysis
Mar 30, 2020

Economic Roundup: How High Will U.S. Unemployment Go?
We forecast the unemployment rate to average 8.7% in the second quarter. Analysis
Mar 30, 2020

Increased U.S. Unemployment Benefits Unlikely to Create a Disincentive to Work
The extra money won't replace all the lost income, and the benefit is for only four months. Analysis
Mar 30, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 30, 2020
We expect data for March to show significant weakness across the board because of COVID-19. Analysis
Mar 30, 2020

Webinar Replay: COVID-19 Economic Scenarios
We update our global forecast in light of the latest developments on the coronavirus crisis. Analysis
Mar 30, 2020

A Stimulus to Remember
After a month of stimulus measures, U.S. policymakers will have to flex their muscle further still. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Darker Forecast
New April baseline will show a sharp decline in Q2 GDP and a spike in the unemployment rate. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Global COVID-19 Tracker: An Economic Counterpunch
Unemployment skyrockets, and there's fear of a second wave in China. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Canada Weekly: Jobless Claims Calamity
The record spike in applications indicates that unemployment will soar above 8% and possibly higher. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Tops China and Italy in COVID-19 Infections
The economic tsunami rolls on. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Fed's Balance Goes Up, Up and Away
Central bank revs up Treasury purchases while discount window and credit facilities are tapped. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Market Soars and Spreads Narrow Despite Record 3.3 Million Jobless Claims
Rightly or wrongly, markets sense that America may begin to normalize by the start of May. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

COVID-19: Global Recession Q&A
We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

Economic Roundup: Jobless Claims Show Economy Ran Into a Brick Wall
New filings hit a historic high, coming in at over 3 million. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

What the Stimulus Can Do
The need is great because affected U.S. workers are concentrated in industries paying the lowest wages. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker: Hitting a Brick Wall
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits soared to 3.283 million. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

Making Main Street a Priority
Congress is hoping small business treads water until a post-pandemic level of normalcy returns to consumer spending. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

U.S. Initial Claims Show Severity of COVID-19 Economic Shock
New filings hit a record 3.283 million in the week ended March 21. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETF Soars Higher From March 19's Close
The iShares iBoxx IG corporate bond ETF has soared by 16.7% during the past four trading days. Analysis
Mar 25, 2020

Economic Roundup: Progress, but Not a Done Deal Yet
A fiscal policy response was agreed upon but hasn't been signed, delaying when it will help. Analysis
Mar 25, 2020

A More Somber Tone as U.S. Housing Takes a Hit
Home sales and construction activity will plummet in the second quarter. Analysis
Mar 25, 2020

Washington Shouldn't Rest on Its Laurels After Historic Stimulus Deal
The deal is a crucial third step toward easing the economic hardships to come, but more can be done. Analysis
Mar 25, 2020

Looking for the U.S. Labor Market Impact of COVID-19
A real shock will come when UI claims for last week are released; claims are widely expected to surpass 1 million. Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

Earnings-Sensitive Securities Rebound, but COVID-19 Warns of a Relapse
U.S. common stock jumped upward by 9.47%, albeit from a depressed base. Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

Economic Roundup: Plenty of Signs the U.S. Economy Is Contracting
Survey-based data continue to deteriorate, but to varying degrees. Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

CECL and IFRS 9 Recommendations: Handling Shifting Economic Scenarios
How can filers adjust their loss estimates in a reasonable and supportable manner? Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Bracing for Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic starts to exact its toll on the U.S. economy. Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

Fed Sparks Big Advances for IG Corporates as High-Yield and Stocks Sink
The Fed will create special purpose vehicles that will purchase investment-grade corporate bonds. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Now Lender of Last Resort for Economy
A historic day that pushes the Fed into uncharted territory. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 23, 2020
Key data will be initial claims, which we forecast to have surged in the latest week to exceed 2.7 million. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

Tax Day Changes in U.S. Could Spell Trouble in Muniland
Fed move is not enough to guarantee liquidity for all issuers. Fiscal policymakers need to step in. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

COVID-19: Global Economic Tsunami
More financial pain is quickly coming as layoffs mount, businesses curtail investment, and retirement nest eggs evaporate. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

Webinar Replay: COVID-19, Global Recession
The spreading virus has created a worldwide economic tsunami that is now hitting the United States and Europe with full force. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Bigger Federal Deficits Do Not Always Promise Higher Treasury Yields
Yields dropped despite an ascent of U.S. government debt from 2007 to 2019. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Economic Roundup: Turning Off the Lights
The U.S. economy is contracting as some industries are grinding to a halt. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Shutting Down
Large state and metro-area economies and those that rely heavily on tourism are most exposed. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Global COVID-19 Tracker: Economic Counterpunch
The rising costs have led lawmakers to accelerate and increase the size of their response. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Canada Weekly: Responding to COVID-19
Parliament is out, but it may reconvene early to speed up action to fight the pandemic and its economic consequences. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Tensions High Over Oil, COVID-19
Oil-output talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia have broken down, and COVID-19 cases soar. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

Average High-Yield EDF Moves Above 10%
This is the first time since the financial crisis that it's reached double digits. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

Economic Roundup: Initial Claims Sound an Alarm
New filings jump and the worst is still to come. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

Quantifying U.S. Regional Exposure to COVID-19
A new tool provides a window into which states and metro areas face the greatest economic threat Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

The Road Less Traveled: COVID-19 Hits U.S. Autos
Demand will be sapped not once but twice as the ripples of this devastating virus pulse through the economy. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

COVID-19 Delivers a Punch to the U.S. Labor Market
Initial claims jumped but the big surge is still to come. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

Munis Holding Up Better Than Most Amid COVID-19 Crisis
Don't be surprised to see a few defaults in the U.S. along the way. Analysis
Mar 18, 2020

Economic Roundup: Timely Indicators Point Toward Collapse In Parts of Economy
OpenTable shows enormous year-over-year declines in seated restaurant dinners.

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