Setup News Ticker
Nov 25, 2020

Happy Thanksgiving From Economic View!
We will return on Monday, November 30. Analysis
Nov 25, 2020

GDPNow Supplies an 11% Baseline Estimate for Fourth Quarter Real GDP Growth
Resurgent COVID-19 may not fully manifest itself in the quarterly GDP growth rate until Q1 2021. Analysis
Nov 25, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Day Stuffed With Data
Lagged data were solid, but weekly initial claims are cause for concern. Analysis
Nov 25, 2020

U.S. Regional Outlook: A Lid on the Gains
States that earlier had weathered the economic effects of the pandemic better are in a very different position today. Analysis
Nov 24, 2020

Financial Markets Discount Importance of Possible Near-Term Slowdown
Weakness in the first quarter of 2021 will prelude growth in the second and third quarter. Analysis
Nov 24, 2020

Economic Roundup: COVID-19 Weighs on U.S. Consumer Sentiment
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell from 101.4 to 96.1 in November. Analysis
Nov 24, 2020

U.S. Employment Outlook: Recovery at Risk
The alarming escalation of COVID-19 infections will cast a pall over the labor market in coming quarters. Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

Economic Roundup: AstraZeneca Adds to Vaccine Optimism
Vaccinations against COVID-19 in the U.S. are likely to begin in earnest prior to Inauguration Day. Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

Giant Rally by Small-Company Stocks Thins High-Yield Spreads
Once markets are convinced that COVID-19 has been defeated, indexes will set record highs. Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 23, 2020
We expect third-quarter GDP to be revised higher in the government's second estimate. Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Winter Is Coming
Bright spots remain, but rising infections and persistent labor market turmoil do not bode well. Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Consumer Spending Takes a Hit
The increase in U.S. retail sales in October was the weakest this recovery. Analysis
Nov 22, 2020

COVID-19 and Related Worries Push Shares and Corporates Lower
If corporate and municipal borrowing costs again soar, the backstop credit facilities will probably be restored immediately. Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Economic Roundup: Pandemic Takes a Dangerous Turn in the U.S.
As case counts reach new record highs on a near-daily basis, cracks emerge in the economic recovery. Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Pandemic Enters Dangerous New Phase in U.S.
The "dark winter" experts warned of is about to take a major toll on regions' tenuous recoveries. Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Canada Weekly: A Regional Real Estate Recovery
Not all provinces and metro areas have been quite so bulletproof. Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Fed Stripped of Tools
Some emergency credit facilities will not be extended. Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Webinar Q&A: The Economic Consequences of the U.S. Election
Questions include the implications of a divided Congress and the importance of new stimulus. Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Austria Compensates Frontline Sectors
The second wave of infections warrants more support for businesses. Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

2021: Below-Average Interest Rates Despite Rapid Growth
U.S. real GDP growth of between 4% and 5% next year seems possible. Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

Economic Roundup: Falling Through the Cracks
Millions of struggling Americans risk losing jobless benefits after December 31. Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

Unsteady on the Fiscal Cliffs
A number of U.S. support measures, including some jobless benefits, are set to expire December 31. Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

New Frontiers in the U.S. COVID-19 Crisis
The pandemic causes lines to be crossed, both literally and figuratively. Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

Pandemic's Lasting Impact on U.S. Consumer Spending
The crisis will have more implications for what people buy than how much. Analysis
Nov 18, 2020

COVID-19 Fears Sink Most, But Not All, U.S. Equities
The market value of U.S. common stock dropped by 1.02%. Analysis
Nov 18, 2020

Economic Roundup: Claims Confusion
As of now, 13 million are on unemployment programs set to expire but not all will lose them. Analysis
Nov 18, 2020

New Vehicles Less Affordable as Incomes Drop
A new index captures components to gauge the American consumer's ability to purchase a new car, truck or SUV. Analysis
Nov 18, 2020

Global Outlook: Virus Surge Pains Recovery
We now expect a weaker rebound through early 2021. Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

Business Cycle-Sensitive Securities Ignore COVID-19 Risks
The Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transports, and Value Line Geometric were up. Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Takes a Breather in October
The increase in retail sales in October was the weakest of this recovery. Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

U.S. Statewide Lockdowns Back in Vogue
The federal government is expected to remain on the sidelines. Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

Tweaking Our Tracking Estimates of Q3 and Q4 U.S. GDP
The third quarter had stronger growth, but the final three months aren't booming. Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

Consumer Fatigue Sets In
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, the weakest this recovery. Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

Vaccine Outlook Gives Markets Shot of Courage
The market value of U.S. common stock advanced by 1.24% to a record high. Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

Economic Roundup: Ominous Sign from Canada's Thanksgiving
COVID-19 cases spiked in Canada after the holiday, and the U.S. could be next. Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Approaching a Tipping Point
The U.S. recovery is entering the new COVID-19 surge in a fragile state. Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 16, 2020
Housing data should be solid. Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

2020 U.S. Election: No Big Surprises
Our 2020 presidential election models were accurate, with only a couple of blind spots. Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

2020 U.S. Elections: No Big Surprises
Our 2020 presidential election models were accurate, with only a couple of blind spots. Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

Cash-Rich America Primed to Spend Once COVID-19 Is Over
There's around $1.45 trillion in excess savings in U.S. accounts. Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

U.S. Expected to Avoid a Broad Lockdown
Despite the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases, fresh shutdowns will be confined to state and local hotspots. Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

Economic Roundup: Surging COVID-19 Cases Force States to Act
Oregon announced a state "freeze" while rising cases are hurting consumer confidence. Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: It'll Get Worse Before It Gets Better
Odds for another pandemic relief bill getting passed in the lame-duck session are about as low as they've ever been. Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Fading Chance for U.S. Stimulus
With a high probability of a divided government, pandemic aid soon is unlikely. Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

Canada Weekly: Getting a Clearer Picture
Next week will include a number of economic releases. Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: U.K. Extends Job Scheme Into 2021
The government also extended pay holidays on mortgages and other consumer credit instruments. Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

U.S. Regional Economies Exhibiting Fatigue
Colder weather and a drastic increase in new COVID-19 infections weakened real-time metrics. Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

Resurgent COVID-19 Fears Sink Equities, High-Yield Bonds
Business prospects have suddenly worsened in light of more coronavirus cases. Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

Economic Roundup: Facing a Benefits Cliff
Continuing claims are declining as individuals lose their eligibility. Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
Tuition declines combine with easing fuel inflation to temper CPI growth. Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

Webinar Q&A: Pandemic Economics
Questions ranged from job security across sectors to mounting debt problems. Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

Webinar Replay: The Economic Consequences of the U.S. Election
Big changes in policy are dead ahead. Analysis
Nov 11, 2020

Upgrades Top Downgrades Thus Far in 2020's Final Quarter
After hitting a record-high 368 downgrades in the second quarter, it fell to 29 in the third. Analysis
Nov 11, 2020

Economic Roundup: Elections Usually Don't Matter for U.S. Consumer Confidence
We don't find any evidence of political bias in two key measures of sentiment. Analysis
Nov 11, 2020

Business Closures and Entrepreneurship During COVID-19
We look at the impact in the U.S. on small-business closures and plans to start new businesses. Analysis
Nov 10, 2020

Spec-Grade Bond Yields Drop to Record Lows
The Bloomberg/Barclays speculative-grade bond yield fell by 45 basis points. Analysis
Nov 10, 2020

Economic Roundup: How the U.S. Baseline Changed Between October and November
The more things changed, the more they stayed the same. Analysis
Nov 10, 2020

A COVID Winter Is Coming
Confirmed U.S. cases could continue to climb, and there won't be any fiscal stimulus to offset the impact. Analysis
Nov 10, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: A Long Way to Go
The economy is regaining lost jobs, but rising coronavirus cases threaten to derail the recovery. Analysis
Nov 09, 2020

Laggards Lead and Leaders Lag In Reaction to Vaccine News
The biggest winners were those most adversely affected by COVID-19. Analysis
Nov 09, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Whirlwind Few Days
Election results and progress on a vaccine occurred but they don't warrant changes to the forecast. Analysis
Nov 09, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 9, 2020
Stock investors appear cheered by the prospects for a divided government. Analysis
Nov 08, 2020

This Week in the COVID Crisis
Having a clear political path forward will go a long way to shore up frayed psyches and the struggling economy. Analysis
Nov 07, 2020

Biden and the Federal Reserve
Fiscal actions will factor into the timing of the first rate hike. Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

High-Yield Spread Narrows to Late February's Range
If it holds, the market value of U.S. common stock will set a record high by year's end. Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Economic Roundup: Not Many Tricks But Plenty of Treats in October Employment
Unemployment rate continues to drop more quickly than anticipated, reducing odds of stimulus soon. Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Canada Weekly: Symptoms of Asymmetry
The pandemic's divergent impact across industries is solidifying. Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: BoE Expands QE as Outlook Darkens
The Bank of England expanded its quantitative easing by £150 billion at its November meeting. Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Inventories Add Even More to Q3 U.S. GDP
We have nudged up our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP to 31.3%. Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: All Eyes on the U.S. Presidential Election
The outcome has enormous implications for the nation's economic prospects. Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Q4 U.S. GDP Tracking Is Up and Running
Preliminary estimate is for fourth-quarter GDP to rise 2.3% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Nov 05, 2020

High-Yield CDX Sinks by 58 BPS Since October's End
The index fell by another 20 bps to 363 on Thursday. Analysis
Nov 05, 2020

Economic Roundup: Drama in Georgia
It's possible that we may not know the makeup of the Senate until January. Analysis
Nov 05, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of October U.S. Employment
We look for a 375,000 increase as the labor market's recovery slows. Analysis
Nov 05, 2020

U.S. Regional COVID-19 Exposure Update
Structural factors and virus prevalence are now negatively correlated. Analysis
Nov 04, 2020

Split Congress Lowers Bond Yields
Extreme changes in tax and regulations is highly unlikely. Analysis
Nov 04, 2020

Economic Roundup: Par for the Course in 2020
The election is a nail-bitter, but there is no need to alter our baseline forecast. Analysis
Nov 04, 2020

U.S. Election Update: A True Nail-Biter
Tuesday's results so far favor a narrow Biden victory and a divided Congress. Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

World Equities Show China Leading U.S. with Europe Well Behind
China's Shanghai Composite has outperformed U.S. equities since the end of 2019. Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Wants You to Forget It Meets This Week
The meeting this week will be a snoozer. Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
Former Vice President Biden will win the White House, with Pennsylvania as the decider. Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

Third Quarter Solid Rebound
Roughly 75% of the U.S. GDP decline in the second quarter was reversed. Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Third Quarter Solid Rebound
Roughly 75% of the U.S. GDP decline in the second quarter was reversed. Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 2, 2020
The key data released this week will take a backseat to the U.S. presidential election. Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

U.S. Approaches a Rental Housing Crisis
The market continues to deteriorate due to the negative effects of COVID-19 and is quickly approaching a breaking point. Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

Webinar Replay: Pandemic Economics
How COVID-19 is shaping American household behavior. Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

U.S. Road to Recovery: Still K-Shaped
Third-quarter GDP jumped, but finances of those in the bottom half of the income distribution have been hit especially hard. Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Spending Trajectory Is Favorable
But fading fiscal stimulus and rising COVID-19 cases will likely hurt consumption this quarter. Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

Canada Weekly: The BoC Pivots to the Long Term
The central bank announced a recalibration of the quantitative easing program. Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

Webinar Q&A: Final U.S. Election Model Update
Questions ranged from the effect of the pandemic to a new Supreme Court justice on Tuesday's vote. Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

A Pattern Emerges in the Fed's MBS Holdings
Prepayments are behind drops in the Fed's balance sheet at the end of the past few months. Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: The Dismal Science
Hopes for a pre-election stimulus deal between congressional Democrats and the White House have dissipated. Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

U.S. Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Europe Tightens Restrictions
As the pandemic worsens, the U.S. braces for the election. Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: New Stimulus In Cards for Europe
Given the resurgence of COVID-19 on the Continent, new stimulus measures are on the horizon. Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Corporates and Treasuries Question Equity Sell Off
The 10-year Treasury yield has barely budged from last Friday's close. Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Corporates and Treasuries Question Equity Sell-Off
The 10-year Treasury yield has barely budged from last Friday's close. Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Apple Mobility Trends Don't Fall Far From the Tree
Apple's high frequency data prove useful but not perfect for showing changes in U.S. driving. Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Economic Roundup: What Goes Down, Must Go Up
U.S. GDP jumps in the third quarter, but there remains a sizable output gap. Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: A Contested Election and the Economy
Delayed results could increase uncertainty and weigh on financial markets. Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Now the Hard Work Begins
Reopening the economy and fiscal stimulus juiced Q3 U.S. GDP.

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