Setup News Ticker
Oct 23, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Holding Steady for Now
A slowing national economy will have broad regional ramifications. Analysis
Oct 22, 2019

Housing and Transports Defy Tuesday's Equity Market Slide
If a recession risk were on the rise, share prices of companies with exposure would be declining. Analysis
Oct 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Existing-Home Sales Slip
Sales can be choppy but the trend in September has clearly improved thanks to lower mortgage rates. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

How This Yield Curve Inversion Differs From 2008-2009 and 2001
With its presumed October rate cut, the Fed could make this the shortest inversion since 1998. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: Businesses Can't Shake the Blues
Brexit and the trade tensions are not helping. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: But Enough About Geopolitics
Temporary factors may have distorted data on industrial production, housing starts and retail sales. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 21, 2019
Expect the Fed to be quiet in the blackout period before its October FOMC meeting. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: A Big 'If'
Will policymakers figure out their mistakes and fix them in time to avoid recession? Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: No Pushback From Clarida
All signs point toward a Fed rate cut later this month, but then things get interesting. Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Solid Case for an October 30 Fed Rate Cut
A further upturn by home sales would strengthen the case for a continued upswing by U.S. consumer spending. Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Canada Weekly: Brexit Deal Could Be a Boon
The effects for commodity prices and trade flows would help offset a slowdown in global growth. Analysis
Oct 17, 2019

Milder Business Activity Swings Boost Equity Valuations, Keep Rates Low
Since 1984, the NAI's moving three-month average has exceeded 0.70 in only 15 of 416 months. Analysis
Oct 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Drama on the Thames
Brexit agreement sets up key weekend vote for U.K. Parliament. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Transportation Index Prices in a Reduced Risk of Recession
Over the last six trading days, the index advanced 6.1% to outrun the market. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Retail Sales Come Up Short, but Don't Worry
A number of possible temporary factors hurt spending in September. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Strong U.S. Economy Helps Balance Spending
High-income households dominate, but the strong labor market supports lower-income spending. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Retail Sales and Business Inventories Cut Into Q3 GDP
Growth in the latest quarter is now on track to rise 1.5% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

U.S. Retail Sales Disappointing, Not Disastrous
A number of transitory factors may have weighed on results. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

High-Yield Loan and Bond Default Rates Have Yet to Alarm
High-yield spreads are more likely to widen than narrow. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: Early Look at 2020 Election
All signs point toward Trump winning re-election. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Analysis: Vice President Biden's Student Loan Plan
It would ease the financial pressure on borrowers and support stronger economic growth. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Our 2020 Presidential Election Models
Early signs point to Trump, though turnout is key. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

U.S. Energy Spending Up for 2018
A sharp collapse of oil prices at the end of the year has kept 2019 spending lower. Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

Predicted High-Yield Spread Tops Actual Spread for 12 Straight Months
One model estimates a midpoint of 489 basis points for the composite high-yield bond spread. Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

Economic Roundup: Why Wait?
New York Fed releases manufacturing survey a day early and the data were mixed. Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 14, 2019
Data this week, including industrial production, could be impacted by the UAW strike that began in September. Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: A Green Light for the FOMC
The most recent data give the Fed cover for another rate cut this month. Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Phase One Done
The U.S. and China have agreed to address some of their short-term rifts. Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Leveraged Loans Have Priced In More Risk Than High-Yield Bonds
The VIX dropped to its lowest level since September 23. Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Lights Out in California
PG&E cut power to much of California this week in an attempt to prevent wildfires. Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Canada Weekly: Rethinking Vancouver's Foreign Buyers
With a novel approach, we separate the effect of foreign demand from overall nonresident demand. Analysis
Oct 10, 2019

Market Assigns Low Grades to Large Percent of Baa3-Rated Issuers
The recent showing by corporate earnings has been decidedly subpar. Analysis
Oct 10, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Little Cooler Now
U.S. core CPI growth moderated in September. Analysis
Oct 10, 2019

Online Spending Not Always What You Think
Apparel and furniture were among the largest components of U.S. e-commerce sales in 2017. Analysis
Oct 09, 2019

Core Retail Sales Accelerate as Remaining Core Business Sales Slow
Core business sales grew by 2.6% annually during the 12 months ended August. Analysis
Oct 09, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed Debates When Enough Is Enough
The FOMC minutes differ from Powell's recent comments. Analysis
Oct 09, 2019

Road to Recession: A Disconnect
Diverging hard and soft data cloud the picture. Analysis
Oct 08, 2019

Data and Expectations Call for 1.375% Fed Funds Rate
It would be the prudent move for the FOMC if the 10-year Treasury is less than 1.7%. Analysis
Oct 08, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed Goes Farm to Table
Fed set to resume expanding its balance sheet, but it's organic growth not QE. Analysis
Oct 08, 2019

A U.S. Retail Recession?
Despite store closings and weak employment in some sectors, retail is in transition, not recession. Analysis
Oct 08, 2019

Global Outlook: An Uncertain Path
Downside risks facing the global economy are high. Analysis
Oct 07, 2019

Rejuvenation of Business Sales Is Critical to Stabilizing High-Yield Rating Changes
Core business sales slowed from July 2018's 5.6% to a likely 1.8% for August. Analysis
Oct 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Disconnect at Home, Less So Abroad
The hard and soft economic data diverge in the U.S., but not elsewhere. Analysis
Oct 07, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Jobs Engine Cooling, Not Sputtering
Employment growth is slowing but not enough to lift the unemployment rate. Analysis
Oct 07, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 7, 2019
It's unlikely that inflation data this week will swing the Fed when it considers the next rate cut. Analysis
Oct 07, 2019

Census Bureau Releases Detailed E-Commerce Data
Analysts want to understand the impact online sales have had and will have on the U.S. and global economy. Analysis
Oct 07, 2019

The U.S. Economy Can Withstand an Impeachment Inquiry
The political conflict isn't an existential threat to the economy, but it is a potential corrosive. Analysis
Oct 04, 2019

Record-High 23.8% of Employment Aged at Least 55 Years
Wage growth is slow for older workers, which may have caused a dip in average hourly earnings. Analysis
Oct 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: Job Growth Cool, Not Ice Cold
U.S. employment provides some comfort that recession risks are not as troubling as they appear in the survey-based data. Analysis
Oct 04, 2019

U.S. Trade Deficit Doesn't Move the Needle
Net exports will be a modest drag on Q3 GDP. Analysis
Oct 04, 2019

Canada Weekly: Demographic Divides
New population estimates suggest the country will grow unevenly. Analysis
Oct 04, 2019

A Disconnect Between Hard and Soft U.S. Data
Our hard-data ISM manufacturing index shows that for now, businesses are not acting on sentiment. Analysis
Oct 04, 2019

We'll Take It
September employment was fine and should ease some concerns about the economy. Analysis
Oct 03, 2019

High-Yield Downgrade Ratio Yet to Reach Recessionary Height
The incidence of downgrades relative to upgrades sometimes offers insight into the nearness of a downturn. Analysis
Oct 03, 2019

Economic Roundup: ISM Surveys Likely Cement Rate Cut
Sentiment is weighing on manufacturing; fed funds futures put odds of an October cut at 90%. Analysis
Oct 03, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of September U.S. Employment
We look for a 161,000 net gain, a little better than the recent average. Analysis
Oct 02, 2019

Record-Low Increase in Number of Americans Aged 20 to 64 Years Reins in Growth
In 2020, this population is only expected to rise by 345,000. Analysis
Oct 02, 2019

Economic Roundup: Last Peek at September Employment
The data so far suggest that the U.S. labor market is chugging along. Analysis
Oct 02, 2019

Next Recession May Lower 10-Year Treasury Yield to 0.5%-to-1% Range
The implied probability of cutting fed funds midpoint to 1.625% in October jumped to a likely 64.7%. Analysis
Oct 01, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Continues to Head South
Trade tensions and the UAW strike hurt manufacturing in September. Analysis
Oct 01, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Still Standing
The U.S. consumer remains vital to the expansion but may be getting weary. Analysis
Oct 01, 2019

Low Interest Rates and Diminished Recession Fears Lift Equities in September
The market is not yet especially worried about a recession despite a lowering of the interest rate outlook. Analysis
Sep 30, 2019

Economic Roundup: Busy European Data Day, Quiet in U.S.
There was both good and bad news in the euro zone data. Analysis
Sep 30, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 30, 2019
The ISM manufacturing survey should edge higher in September. Analysis
Sep 30, 2019

U.S. Federal Outlook: Multipliers and the Next Recession
Brief White House consideration of a payroll tax cut revived debate about the efficacy of various cuts. Analysis
Sep 27, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Fatigue Sets In
Spending was weak in August, but it's too early to panic. Analysis
Sep 27, 2019

Core Business Sales Continue to Decelerate
If the slowdown persists, downside risk will outweigh upside potential. Analysis
Sep 27, 2019

Webinar Replay: The Next Recession—Asia-Pacific Edition
Risks are uncomfortably high and rising as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China. Analysis
Sep 27, 2019

Canada Weekly: Wage Growth Spillover
Wholesalers are having a banner year. Analysis
Sep 27, 2019

Updated U.S. Risk Matrix: Impeachment and the Economy
Mounting political rancor and rising odds of an oil price shock bear watching. Analysis
Sep 26, 2019

Sinking IPOs Warn of Fewer New Highly Leveraged Loans
September's lively rebound by leveraged loans may be short-lived. Analysis
Sep 26, 2019

Economic Roundup: Trade Won't Help Out in Q3
The U.S. trade deficit widened in August, making it unlikely for trade to support third-quarter GDP. Analysis
Sep 26, 2019

Distribution of Credit Ratings Can Influence Aggregate Leverage Ratios
Second quarter aggregate revenues of S&P 500 companies grew 4% from a year earlier. Analysis
Sep 25, 2019

Economic Roundup: What the Impeachment Inquiry Means for the Economy
The biggest concern is how it will affect the progress with the U.S. fiscal 2020 budget. Analysis
Sep 25, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: Changing Times
The unemployment rate is not expected to fall much further as gains align with labor force trends. Analysis
Sep 24, 2019

Yields That Are Less Than Coupons Spur Corporate Bond Issuance
The recent bond average yield of 5.55% was 80 bps under the average coupon of 6.35%. Analysis
Sep 24, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Less Cheery in September
Sentiment is not raising a red flag, but it's worth watching. Analysis
Sep 24, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: The Housing Surprise
Lower mortgage rates have juiced existing-home sales, residential construction and homebuilder sentiment. Analysis
Sep 24, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Slower Traffic Ahead
Trade tensions have evolved into a potential off-ramp for the expansion, with certain regions especially exposed. Analysis
Sep 23, 2019

Worrisome Leverage at Odds With Healthy Interest Coverage
Rapid growth of Baa-rated debt and very low borrowing costs might help explain it. Analysis
Sep 23, 2019

Economic Roundup: Business Can't Shake the Blues
Global business sentiment is consistent with a global economy that is struggling. Analysis
Sep 23, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 23, 2019
Watch for the new data on housing, which has shown signs of recent improvement. Analysis
Sep 20, 2019

Default Rate Slides Despite Historically Elevated Leverage
the next lasting zenith for the corporate debt to GDP ratio may not occur until the next recession is well underway. Analysis
Sep 20, 2019

Economic Roundup: Household Wealth Continues to Climb
Consumers remain in a position to put the economy on their shoulders. Analysis
Sep 20, 2019

Canada Weekly: Manufacturers' Malaise
Inventories have moved way out of line with sales, raising the odds of impending production cuts. Analysis
Sep 20, 2019

Overnight Funding Crisis Is Well Contained for Now
September-to-date's issuance was up by 44% annually to $132 billion for investment-grade obligation. Analysis
Sep 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: BoJ and BoE Hit Snooze
Japan's central bank hints it could act in October as the VAT increase takes effect. Analysis
Sep 19, 2019

Is the U.S. Immune to Negative Interest Rates?
The Fed is unlikely to set the fed funds rate below zero, but the 10-year may not be immune. Analysis
Sep 19, 2019

Futures Market Disputes FOMC's Interest Rate Predictions
If the 10-year Treasury at least approaches 2%, the Fed may leave fed funds' midpoint at 1.875%. Analysis
Sep 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: Show Me the Data!
U.S. economic data will need to justify another rate cut; Powell's not worried about the repo market. Analysis
Sep 18, 2019

Plumbing Clogged in Repo Markets
Bad timing and technical issues are likely to blame rather than a crisis of confidence. Analysis
Sep 18, 2019

Equity Analysts May Be Too Optimistic Regarding Containment of Labor Costs
The high-yield bond market has yet to exhibit the high anxiety of equities. Analysis
Sep 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Oil Prices Fall as Saudi Arabia Recovers Lost Oil Production
The U.S. economy can withstand the current higher level of oil prices, but geopolitical risks still plague oil markets. Analysis
Sep 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Oil Prices Fall as Saudi Arabia Recovers Lost Production
The U.S. economy can withstand the current higher level of oil prices, but geopolitical risks still plague oil markets. Analysis
Sep 17, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Keep Calm and Shop on
Consumers' pocketbooks stay open in the face of rising headwinds. Analysis
Sep 17, 2019

After Attack in Saudi Arabia, Code Red
The attack on the Saudi oil infrastructure brings Saudi Arabia, Iran and the U.S. to the brink. Analysis
Sep 17, 2019

Global Outlook: In the Downswing
Recession fears increase as trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks linger. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: Oil Would Have to Keep Soaring to Do Damage
U.S. economy can weather higher oil prices. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

FOMC Preview: Another Cut Is Coming
The Fed will cut rates on Wednesday but won't signal that more is necessarily on its way. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

Moody's Analytics Raises Oil Price Forecast
The change is in response to attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure.

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