NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 26, 2021

Equities, High-Yield Tend to do Well as Treasury Yields Trend Higher
Four recent periods show how the market has reacted rising Treasury bonds.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 26, 2021

Economic Roundup: Importance of Fiscal Relief in a Single Number
Nominal disposable income would've declined in January without fiscal relief.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 26, 2021

Canada Weekly: Stuck at Home
Containment of the virus spread will determine the economy's performance in the next few months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 26, 2021

Q1 U.S. GDP Is Hot Now but Set to Cool
February data could lower our tracking estimate of first quarter GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 26, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Making Progress With Vaccinations
Herd immunity may be in sight.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 26, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: U.K. Set to Increase Stimulus
We expect additional aid in the 2021 budget.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 25, 2021

Rising Treasury Bond Yields Trigger Sell-Off
The market value of U.S. common stock sank by 2.67%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 25, 2021

Economic Roundup: Why Can't U.S. Business Investment's Hot Run Continue?
Durable goods jumped in December, juiced by transportation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 25, 2021

Is a February U.S. Retail Sales Flop in the Cards?
Fewer tax refunds, weather, and payback could weigh on retail sales.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 25, 2021

A Perfect Winter Storm for Texas
The idiosyncrasies of last week's weather made it the costliest winter event in memory.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 24, 2021

Winter Weather Slightly Chills Mortgage Applications
It was the first yearly setback since May 2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 24, 2021

Economic Roundup: Chilly Winter, Hot Housing Market
New-home sales increased 4.3% in January.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 24, 2021

U.S. Commodities Outlook: Oil's Upside Risks
The recovery in demand is expected to prompt OPEC to bring on additional supply.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 23, 2021

Low High-Yield EDF Implies Investors May Not Be Overreaching for Yield
There is a 6-percentage point gap between high-yield defaults and high-yield EDFs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 23, 2021

Economic Roundup: Powell Doesn't Rock the Boat
Inflation won't spook the Fed any time soon.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 23, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker Update: Shots in the Arms
Declining COVID-19 infections set the stage for a spring rebound in the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 23, 2021

U.S. Economy Will Feel February's Winter Chill
There are already signs that the winter storms dented the economy, but the damage is temporary.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 23, 2021

U.S. Workplaces of the Future
Some metro areas can expect an outsize dividend from increased labor mobility.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 23, 2021

Where's the Money Going?
U.S. M2 growth is through the roof, but it's not boosting GDP or inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 22, 2021

Interest Rate Risks Eclipse Credit Risks
With 5% GDP, high-yield corporate bonds are likely to outperform U.S. Treasury bonds.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 22, 2021

Economic Roundup: Buckle Up, It's Going to Be a Busy Week
Powell will testify and he may have to address the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 22, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Milestone in Sight
We are increasingly comfortable assuming that herd immunity will be reached by September.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 22, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Getting Into Tune
Housing and retail started the year on high notes, but the labor market sang in a lower key.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 22, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 22, 2021
With a full year of household survey data now available at the county level, one can begin to assess the impact of COVID-19 on urban labor markets.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 22, 2021

Stress-Testing States: COVID-19—A Year Later
The pandemic recession has posed unique challenges to U.S. policymakers and state and local budget officials.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 22, 2021

The Pandemic Factor in the 2021 U.S. Tax Filing Season
The COVID-19 crisis created some unknowns when it comes to taxes, but risks to disposable income are skewed to the upside.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 19, 2021

Projected 10-year Treasury Yield Seems Too Low
With forecasts of nominal GDP growth at 7%, even a 2% yield seems small.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 19, 2021

Economic Roundup: Frenzied Buying Signals U.S. Housing Market's Too Hot
Existing homes were on the market for 21 days in January, compared with 43 days in January 2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 19, 2021

Canada Weekly: A Shaky Start to 2021
The recovery has been unsteady, and the weakness will likely spill into the first quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 19, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Signs of New Life in U.S. Economy
Markets welcome Italy's new Prime Minister Draghi.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 19, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: American Recovery Plan On Its Way
Singapore's 2021 budget remains expansionary with a SGD11 billion deficit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 18, 2021

Inflation Fears May Be Overblown
An ageing U.S. workforce will make it difficult for consumer spending to grow rapidly.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 18, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Residential Investment, Labor Market Slow
Housing starts dropped in January but rising permits are a reason not to fret.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 18, 2021

Breakaway U.S. Inflation Isn't in the Cards
Inflation will enjoy a pop in early 2021, but the bigger question is its trajectory after that.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 18, 2021

Urban Labor Markets Lose Ground
A review of U.S. household survey data from last year reveals the degree to which cities underperformed.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 18, 2021

U.S. Credit Outlook: Markets Move Higher
Mortgage lending has soared as the nonmortgage market shrank.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 17, 2021

More Upgrades Than Downgrades Complement Expected 5% Real GDP Growth
Net high-yield downgrades of Q1 2021 are on track to be the fewest since 2010's third quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 17, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Retail Sales, PPI Pop in January
Strong retail sales boosted our tracking estimate of Q1 GDP to 8% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 17, 2021

U.S. Retail Sales Surge
Stimulus and favorable seasonals juiced January sales.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 17, 2021

U.S. Fiscal Stimulus Update
Federal funds are finding their way through the U.S. economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 16, 2021

Caa-Rated Bond Issuance Can Lower Default Risk
Moody's views this one leverage-neutral transaction as being credit positive.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 16, 2021

Economic Roundup: Can't Get Enough Good Vaccine News
Progress continues to be made, particularly in the U.S.; inflation may be spooking the bond market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 16, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker Update: More Good Than Bad
There is still much room for improvement, but distribution and supply issues should be less binding over the next several months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 16, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 16, 2021
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits likely fell in the latest week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 16, 2021

Temporary Acceleration in U.S. Inflation Is Coming
The Fed will ignore the acceleration, as disinflationary forces will emerge in the second half.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 16, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Waiting for a Vaccine Boost
Data last week offered little evidence of a strengthening economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 16, 2021

Survey Highlights Divergence in Loan Product Types
Small banks in the U.S. have riskier portfolios and have been slow to increase provisions.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 14, 2021

Happy Presidents' Day
Our U.S. offices are closed Monday, February 15.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 12, 2021

Stimulus Won't Supply Same Lift as Employment
Once hiring picks up, consumer sentiment will improve and the personal savings rate will decline.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 12, 2021

Economic Roundup: Can Better News Stick in U.S.?
Cases are falling but strains of the U.K. variant are doubling every 10 days in the U.S.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 12, 2021

Stimulus Mitigates Economic Damage for Low-Income U.S. Consumers
Confidence suggests higher-income households have been more impacted.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 12, 2021

Canada Weekly: Oil Woes...Again
The country faces idiosyncratic problems as global petroleum demand remains down across the board.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 12, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Our Updated Policy Assumptions
Government spending will increase, but will be less than the massive measures used last year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 12, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Employment Recovery Faces Long Road Ahead
Populist prospects rise in Latin America.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 12, 2021

Infections, Hospitalizations and the U.S. Economy
Labor market outcomes are linked to the COVID-19 pandemic's intensity.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 12, 2021

Infections, Hospitalizations and the U.S.Economy
Labor market outcomes are linked to the COVID-19 pandemic's intensity.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 11, 2021

Why Treasury Bond Yields Won't Soon Enter a Secular Climb
The CBO projects a 1.4% average three-month Treasury rate from 2025-2030.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 11, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Now Improving at Snail's Pace
February's gain in nonfarm employment should be a little better than January's.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 11, 2021

A Regional View of the U.S. Vaccine Rollout
Progress on COVID-19 inoculations paves the way for state economies to strengthen.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 10, 2021

Thin Spreads Reflect Long Stay by Low Treasury Yields
The quickly closing spreads reflect confidence in long-term low rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 10, 2021

Economic Roundup: Bumpy Ride Ahead for U.S. Inflation
The Fed will ignore acceleration as it's transitory and the labor market has a lot of healing to do.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 10, 2021

U.S. Labor Force Recovery Hinges on Parents Getting Back to Work
COVID-19 concerns and the prevalence of virtual schooling have hampered the return to work.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 10, 2021

Smaller Company Shares Lead Market Since End of September 2020
For 2021 to date, the Russell 2000 is up by 16.4%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 09, 2021

Economic Roundup: Some Tweaks to February Baseline
We have some new fiscal assumptions, but it didn't lead to big changes to this year's forecast.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 09, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker Update: The Race to Inoculate
An unprecedented effort is underway.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 09, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Recovery Remains on Ice
The recovery stalled, but positive vaccination developments set the stage for growth to accelerate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 09, 2021

Support From Low Gasoline Prices Ends
U.S. per-gallon costs last week exceeded their year-ago level for the first time in about 11 months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 09, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Some Good News
The daily rate of new infections in the U.S. has finally begun to abate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 08, 2021

Dearth of Semiconductors Sparks Upturn by Sector's Share Prices
High-yield bond spreads, even risky Caa bonds, have narrowed considerably.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 08, 2021

Economic Roundup: Pandemic Keeps Businesses Down in the Dumps
Global business sentiment should improve as we work our way through 2021.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 08, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 8, 2021
More fiscal support is on the way.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 08, 2021

U.S. Bank Deposits are Elevated, but Why?
What made this recession peculiar is the sizable government support doled out quite early on, while lending and spending both remain moribund.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 07, 2021

This Week in the COVID Crisis
Why it's important to go big.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 05, 2021

Newly Rated Loans May Expand by 27% Annually in 2021
However, the projected annual growth to $525 billion might be overly cautious.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 05, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Job Market Off to Sluggish Start
Unemployment rate fell in January and with fiscal support coming, further declines are in the cards.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 05, 2021

Canada Weekly: Stuck
COVID-19 vaccinations have been slowed by administrative pauses and supply chain disruptions.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 05, 2021

U.S. Unemployment Rate Still Masks Current Conditions
Adjusted data show an uptick in joblessness since October, despite ongoing improvement in the headline rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 05, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Senate Gives a Boost to Biden's Pandemic Aid Plan
Risks in Asia continue to increase and all signs point to escalation between the U.S. and China.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 05, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Still Waiting on Next U.S. Stimulus
Negotiations continue in Washington DC on the size of the fiscal relief package.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 04, 2021

Higher Share Prices Abet Slide by Default Risk Metric
The Russell 2000 is now up by a market-leading 11.4% for the year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 04, 2021

Economic Roundup: Compositional Issues Mucking With Productivity, Unit Labor Costs
Still, other measures suggest that wage growth is solid and should help spending.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 04, 2021

Lofty Expectations for U.S. Consumer Spending
Consumer spending this year could exceed our strong forecast.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 04, 2021

Canada Risk Matrix Update: Vaccines Loom Large
COVID-19 cases have trended down since early January's peak, but the winter outbreak remains the greatest near-term threat to the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 04, 2021

Final Thoughts Ahead of January U.S. Employment
This could be a wild one.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 04, 2021

Automakers Say 'Pass the Chips,' and It's Not for the Big Game
Worldwide semiconductor chip shortage may tap the brakes on the recovery of U.S. new-vehicle sales.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 04, 2021

Quantifying Natural Disasters in the Age of Covid
Real-time data provide an additional window into snow's impact

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 03, 2021

High-Yield EDF Metric Hints of Possible 325-BP High-Yield Bond Spread
It was its lowest daily reading since 2018 and less than 80% of its monthlong averages.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 03, 2021

Economic Roundup: A U.S. Labor Market Data Head Fake?
January is normally a rough month but seasonal layoffs are likely less severe this year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 03, 2021

Q1 U.S. GDP Tracking Has Started
Our initial estimate is for first-quarter growth of 4.8% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2021

Corporate Bond Market's Indifference to Short-Covering Proves Prescient
The VIX has dropped more than 10 points since last week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2021

Economic Roundup: Winter Is Least Concerning for Q1 U.S. GDP
Storm could add some volatility to monthly data on retail sales, industrial production and housing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2021

Snow Is Still Falling, but Storm's Cost Is Coming Into View
Nor'easter will likely result in $3 billion to $5 billion in lost U.S. output.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: More Light at the End of the Tunnel
Timing on a new fiscal relief package is critical.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Time for a Breather
Recent data on home sales suggest housing is primed for a cooldown.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 01, 2021

High-Yield Spread Continues to Lead Equities
The credit market expects the damage from recent equity market volatility to be limited.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 01, 2021

Economic Roundup: Winter's Not Chilling U.S. Manufacturing
A solid ISM manufacturing survey in January, but supply disruptions are pushing prices higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 01, 2021

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Here We Go Again
Negotiations continue about the next round of fiscal relief.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 01, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview: February 1, 2021
We look for nonfarm employment to have risen in January.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 01, 2021

U.S. Economic Implications of Biden's Executive Orders
The new president's actions are numerous, but their short-run effects will be modest.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 01, 2021

Lasting Impact of the Pandemic on U.S. Consumer Behavior
It is unlikely changes will be as large as after the Great Depression, but it may take a decade to know for sure.

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