Setup News Ticker
Dec 06, 2019

Jobs Grow Briskly Despite Subpar Revenues and Profits
The labor market will not be a primary driver of consumer price inflation. Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Bad Day for the Doom and Gloomers
November was a blowout month for job growth and the trend is starting to improve. Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

FOMC Preview: According to Plan
Past rate cuts are helping, but the Fed can now sit tight for a while. Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Pressure On as Next Tariff Deadline Nears
On Brexit, there is market optimism as Conservatives lead in U.K. election polls. Analysis
Dec 05, 2019

Lower Rates More than Offset Lower Profits
A120 bps year-over-year plunge by the long-term Baa industrial-company bond yield has helped. Analysis
Dec 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: Q4 U.S. GDP Headed in the Right Direction
GDP is now tracking at 1.9%; Friday brings the U.S. November employment report. Analysis
Dec 05, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of November Employment
We look for a 163,000 net gain in U.S. nonfarm employment. Analysis
Dec 05, 2019

Q4 GDP Estimate Still Climbing
U.S. net exports will add more to growth than previously anticipated. Analysis
Dec 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: ADP, Nonmanufacturing Index Point to Slowing Growth
U.S. private-sector hiring is no longer the hare with 2020 appearing to be the year of the tortoise. Analysis
Dec 04, 2019

Record Slow Growth for 16 to 64 Age Cohort Reins In Job Growth
The inexorable aging of the U.S. is likely to be accompanied by a slower underlying rate of growth for U.S. business activity. Analysis
Dec 04, 2019

Canada Outlook: Not Out of the Woods Yet
Despite investment's strong third quarter, consumption will still need to carry GDP growth. Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

Medians Suggest Averages Mask a Narrowly Focused Erosion of High-Yield Credit Quality
April 2014's $79.5 billion still serves as the zenith for worldwide high-yield bond offerings. Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

Economic Roundup: Here We Go Again
Trump ratchets up talk of tariffs and hints the deal with China can wait until after the election. Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

Trump Sticks With His Playbook, Fed Changes Its
The president is talking tough on trade, but the central bank won't ease unless there is a material change to the outlook. Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

2020 Election Tracker Update: Trump's Approval Brushes Off the Inquiry
The president's re-election chances are bolstered by many political and economic factors. Analysis
Dec 03, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: An Economy to Be Thankful For
The U.S. economic expansion has remained intact despite numerous headwinds. Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

Higher Treasury Yields Deepened Monday's Equity Selloff
The odd combination triggered a 1.14% daily plunge by the PHLX index of housing share prices. Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Will Not Make a Quick Turn
ISM index has remained below its neutral threshold of 50 for four consecutive months. Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 2, 2019
Though the Fed's balance sheet is now increasing, it doesn't mean that stock prices will also increase. Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

Fewer U.S. Youth Will Hamper Holiday Sales
Because you can't make America young again, you can't make American retail sales great again. Analysis
Dec 02, 2019

Holiday Sales Will Slow With Fewer U.S. Youth
Because you can't make America young again, you can't make American retail sales great again. Analysis
Nov 27, 2019

Happy Thanksgiving
The U.S. offices of will be closed Thursday and Friday, November 28 and 29. Analysis
Nov 27, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer May Not Have to Do It Alone
Business investment is showing signs of picking up, but you should keep expectations in check. Analysis
Nov 27, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Impetus for U.S.-China Trade Deal Has Increased on Both Sides
A phase-one deal has yet to be signed and further progress has been scant. Analysis
Nov 27, 2019

High Times for High Yield
The market value of U.S. common stock rose by 0.23% to a new high. Analysis
Nov 26, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fourth Quarter Looks Slightly Better
U.S. Q4 GDP is tracking at 1%, but risks are weighted to the upside. Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

Plunge by Baa Industrial Yield Makes U.S. Equity Market Surge By 17.5%
A deep 129-basis points dive by the 10-year Treasury yield fuels market rise. Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

Economic Roundup: Slow Start to Busy, Holiday-Shortened Week
Global business confidence continues to be in the dumps. Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Keep It Together
Low interest rates have everyone feeling good. Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 25, 2019
The trend in initial jobless claims has clearly softened a bit. Analysis
Nov 25, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Warning Signs Emerge
The share of metro area output associated with late-cycle expansions could signal a tipping point. Analysis
Nov 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Little Fizzle After No Summer Sizzle
Monthly GDP suggests that the economy improved in September. Analysis
Nov 22, 2019

Elevated Leverage Ratio Signals Above-Average Credit Risk
Nonfinancial-corporate debt has risen to a record-high 46.5% of GDP. Analysis
Nov 22, 2019

Canada Weekly: HELOC, How Are You?
Nonmortgage lending needs a new name given its composition. Analysis
Nov 22, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Another Trade War Deadline Approaches
December tariffs put U.S. consumers in the crosshairs. Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

Covenant-Lite Loans May Weaken Predictive Power of Downgrades per Upgrade
They also may facilitate the liquidation of assets well before a business files for bankruptcy. Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Existing-Home Sales Improve, but Keep an Eye on Claims
Initial claims have risen recently, but they are not raising a red flag yet. Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

Déjà Vu All Over Again in Washington DC
Congress punted on the budget, setting up a potential Christmas shutdown once again. Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

U.S. Housing Outlook: A Sustainable Climb
Reduced financing costs have helped first-time homebuyers and new-home buyers the most. Analysis
Nov 21, 2019

Reading the Tea Leaves in U.S. Initial Claims
Even without the UAW boost, November job growth would be sufficient. Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Credit Markets Remain Sanguine About the Business Outlook
The high-yield default rate is not a trustworthy leading indicator of a recession. Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed's Deal With the Economy
If it holds up and inflation remains in check, the Fed will sit tight. Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Where Brokerage Fee Cuts Will and Won't Impact U.S. Inflation
Drop in trading commissions hurt the PPI but not the CPI. Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Federal Welfare Spending and the Next Recession
The biggest risk is that lawmakers might fail to deliver enough stimulus. Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Problems in the U.S. Factory Belt
The trade war and recent UAW strike have hurt manufacturing employment. Analysis
Nov 20, 2019

Housing-Related Sales Show a Lagged Response to 2018's Upturn by Interest Rates
The annual growth rate for general merchandise store sales slowed to 1.6% in January-October. Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Starts to Bounce Back
The big surprise was the increase in permits, as it suggests an acceleration in housing starts. Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

U.S. Residential Investment Likely Will Add to Q4 GDP
Housing starts rose in October, and permits were encouraging. Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: That's Going to Leave a Mark
New data cut into our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth. Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview: November 18, 2019
Housing reports highlight an otherwise light week. Analysis
Nov 19, 2019

Softening of Base Metals Prices Suggests Limited Upside for Treasury Yields
Treasury bond yields can decline without help from a worsened business outlook. Analysis
Nov 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: Financial Markets Don't Share Businesses' Gloom
Easing in financial market conditions will provide a boost to the U.S. economy next year. Analysis
Nov 18, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: Economy Throttles Back
Consumers are the firewall as the tax cut boost has faded and the trade war takes a toll. Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Profits Growth Likely If Rate of Capacity Utilization Climbs Higher
October's 0.2% monthly rise by core retail sales preserves the possibility of core business sales annual increase improving. Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: That Sinking Feeling Is Q4 U.S. GDP
New data lowered our tracking estimate of growth in the current quarter from 1.2% to 0.6%. Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Beijing and Athens Meet
Xi Jinping was in Greece for talks with that country's president and prime minister. Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Ouch! Q4 GDP Now Tracking 0.6%
U.S. retail sales, industrial production and business inventories were not kind to GDP. Analysis
Nov 15, 2019

Canada Weekly: IMO Decode
New regulations in 2020 will hamper Canada's oil industry. Analysis
Nov 14, 2019

High-Yield Bond Issuance Avoids Speculative Excess
The current distribution portends nothing worse than a mild rise by the default rate over the next 12 months. Analysis
Nov 14, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Day of Disappointments
China data fall short of expectations, while U.S. initial claims jump. Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Low Inflation Expectations Imply Fed Can Be Quick With Rate Cut
The five-year TIPS contract now puts the expected annual rate of CPI inflation just under 1.6%. Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not Enough to Sway the Fed
Firming U.S. inflation will not divert the Federal Reserve from its current course. Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Budget Deadlines on Collision Course With Impeachment Hearings
U.S. lawmakers must pass another short-term spending bill next week to prevent a shutdown. Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Some Temporary U.S. Economy Drags Are Lifting
The resolution of the UAW strike should boost manufacturing in November and December. Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

U.S. High-Yield Downgrade per Upgrade Ratio May Ease for Third Straight Quarter
The high-yield default rate of U.S. issuers rose from October 2018's 3.16% to October's 3.56%. Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

Trade Troubles on the Farm
Recent data highlight the extent of the trade war's damage to the U.S. farm sector. Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: No Warning Bells
Minor disappointments indicate a slowing economy but are not a cause for alarm. Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

Loan Spreads Remain Well Above Bond Spreads for High-Yield Credits
The average high-yield loan spread was 58 bps wider than Barclays average high-yield bond spread. Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not Much to Like in U.K. Q3 GDP
The U.K. dodged a technical recession, but Brexit continues to hurt. Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 11, 2019
Key data coming up include retail sales, consumer and producer prices, industrial production, and business inventories. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Lowest Ratio of Riskiest Bonds to Outstanding High-Yield Bonds Since 1987
Third-quarter 2019's $1.256 trillion of outstanding high-yield U.S. corporate bonds included $319 billion of bonds from the riskiest credit ratings. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Economic Roundup: 10-Year Is Streaking
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued its tear. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Canada Weekly: Trading Down
Cooling of international trade may trigger a slowdown despite strong Q2 growth. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Is the Fed Killing the Signal From the Yield Curve?
Long-term rates have risen, helping steepen the yield curve, but there could be a cost. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Global Outlook: Sinking in Uncertainty
Growth has slowed in 2019, and will remain below potential in 2020. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: 15 Asian Nations Agree to New Trade Pact
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership represents the world's largest trade deal. Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Spreads Narrow for 71% of Yearly Advances by Broad Equity Market
An easing of recession risk has driven benchmark bond yields higher. Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: Figuring Out U.S. Unemployment's Message
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect. Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: Figuring Out Unemployment's Message
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect. Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Updated U.S. Risk Matrix: A Little Less Threatening
There have been some positive developments with regard to the U.S.-China trade tensions and Brexit. Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

U.S. Investment-Grade Corporate-Bond Issuance Has Been Led by Single-A
These bonds have advanced by 28.4% annually to $396 billion in 2019. Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Moving on From Late-Stage Expansion
We now put the economy at risk of a recession, but that does not mean it is imminent. Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Road to Recession: A New Phase
The U.S. consumer is shouldering all the burden in preventing the slowing from turning into something worse. Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Boeing's Impact on U.S. Growth
Issues with the 737 MAX are likely shaving tenths of a percentage point off GDP. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: Is the Trade Tide Turning?
Net exports have a shot at adding to Q4 U.S. GDP. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

No New Cycle Lows for Credit Spreads Despite Record Highs for U.S. Equity Market
The slowdown with the profits recession of 2015-2016 was more severe than the latest deceleration. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Fed Likely Done, for Now
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Fed Likely Down, for Now
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: No Tricks, Just Treats
Third-quarter output and October employment surprised to the upside. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

September Trade Deficit Sets Up Better for Q4 U.S. GDP
Fourth quarter growth is now tracking 1.2%. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Student Loans and the Housing Market
While U.S. homeownership has fallen and student debt has risen, the causal link is ambiguous. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Stress-Testing States 2019
The overall results of the latest exercise relative to a year ago are unmistakably positive. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Solid U.S. Labor Market Implies Recent High-Yield Spread Is Not Too Thin
Three models generated a midpoint of 413 basis points for the high-yield bond spread. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: Don't Sleep on the SLOOS
Banks are tightening lending standards on C&I, but not enough to raise a red flag, yet. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Welcome to Economic View: Real Time has a new look, new features, and a new name. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Canada Risk Matrix: Trouble in Every Direction
The U.S.-China trade war remains at the forefront. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

2020 Election Tracker Update: Early Signs Point to Trump
Nonetheless, our forecast is fraught with a handful of wild cards. Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Economic Roundup: Sometimes It's Good to Be Wrong
U.S. job growth was noticeably better than we expected in October. Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Q4 U.S. GDP: One Is the Loneliest Number
We have begun tracking fourth-quarter growth, and it is not looking good. Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Average U.S. Annual Increase for Those Over 80 Will Outpace Working-Age Cohort
Over the next 10 years, 20- to 64-year-olds are expected to increase by only 360K.

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