Setup News Ticker
Jul 02, 2020

Happy Fourth of July From Economic View!
We will return on Monday, July 6. Analysis
Jul 02, 2020

Economic Roundup: The Good Times Unlikely to Keep Rolling
The June jobs report was impressive, but uncertainty is mounting as COVID-19 case counts rise. Analysis
Jul 02, 2020

Canada Weekly: Starting From the Bottom
The economy is beginning to turn a corner, but the amount of lost ground proves staggering. Analysis
Jul 02, 2020

As COVID-19 Surges, Regional Setbacks in U.S. Pile Up
States change course after premature reopenings, but it may already be too late. Analysis
Jul 02, 2020

Stress-Testing in a Pandemic
Given the current shock, it is prudent for the Fed to restrict bank operations until clearer signs of economic recovery prevail. Analysis
Jul 01, 2020

Fed Helps Corporate Bond Market Withstand COVID-19 Recession
Investment-grade corporates now appear to be relatively more attractive than comparably dated and lower-yielding U.S. Treasury bonds. Analysis
Jul 01, 2020

Economic Roundup: Wise Fed Says Only Fools Rush In
The U.S. central bank is not as close to adopting yield-curve control as we previously thought. Analysis
Jul 01, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of June U.S. Employment
We look for a 4.25 million increase in nonfarm employment and a 12.9% unemployment rate. Analysis
Jun 30, 2020

Second-Quarter Rebound by Equities Senses Better Times Ahead
Illinois tops states in the cost of insuring debt against possibility of default. Analysis
Jun 30, 2020

Economic Roundup: Housing Market Bucks Pandemic
U.S. house prices move higher despite COVID-19-fueled turbulence. Analysis
Jun 30, 2020

Global Loss of Production Capacity Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic
It will take several years of persistent investment efforts to put global output back to potential. Analysis
Jun 30, 2020

U.S. Commodities Outlook: A Long Road to Normal
The primary risk to the oil market forecast is the path of the COVID-19 outbreak. Analysis
Jun 29, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Sizzles, for Now
Pending home sales surged 44.3% in May. Analysis
Jun 29, 2020

Pending Home Sales Surge Sparks Housing-Sector Share Price Jump
Consensus forecasts infer that COVID-19 will cost the U.S. economy approximately $1.879 trillion in forgone nominal GDP. Analysis
Jun 29, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 29, 2020
We expect an increase in vehicle sales from 12.2 million annualized units in May to 13 million in June. Analysis
Jun 29, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: At a Crossroads
With green shoots emerging and the pandemic intensifying, the U.S. is nearing a critical juncture. Analysis
Jun 26, 2020

Record-High Personal Savings Will Eventually Fund Household Spending
Personal savings soared to $4.1 trillion annualized during March to May. Analysis
Jun 26, 2020

Economic Roundup: Consumer Spending Bounced in May
New data on personal income and spending lifted our GDP tracking estimate for the second quarter. Analysis
Jun 26, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Q2 GDP Estimate Rises, but Still a Big Fall
We have a better sense of the severity of the recession and the subsequent recovery. Analysis
Jun 26, 2020

Canada Weekly: Lobsters, Huawei & COVID-19
The Canadian economy will have likely contracted by near 40% in Q2 in annualized terms. Analysis
Jun 26, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Proposes New Tariffs on European Exports
COVID-19 infections are rising in the U.S. Analysis
Jun 26, 2020

A Less Terrible Decline in U.S. Q2 GDP
May consumer spending nudges our tracking estimate up, but GDP is still set to plunge. Analysis
Jun 26, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Nigeria Approves Economic Recovery Growth Plan
Africa's largest economy adds to its stimulus. Analysis
Jun 25, 2020

Consensus May Be Overestimating Late 2021's 10-Year Treasury Yield
The yield often declines more than a year after a recession. Analysis
Jun 25, 2020

Consensus May Be Overestimating Late-2021's 10-Year Treasury Yield
The yield often declines more than a year after a recession. Analysis
Jun 25, 2020

Economic Roundup: When Will the Layoffs Stop?
Firms continue to lay off workers at a rapid pace even as the economy has turned a corner. Analysis
Jun 25, 2020

The U.S. Labor Market Is Not Driving Spending
Stimulus separates job losers from spending slashers. Analysis
Jun 25, 2020

U.S. Road to Recovery: The Deepest but Shortest Recession
Growth has resumed, and the recession is likely technically over. Analysis
Jun 25, 2020

The Steep Price of May's Job Gains
Reopenings spurred surprisingly strong numbers, but seeded a June COVID-19 surge. Analysis
Jun 25, 2020

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Fiscal Space Becomes an Issue
We raised the odds of an oil-price spike, but the probability remains low. Analysis
Jun 24, 2020

Double-Dip Would Lower 10-Year Treasury Yield
This type of recession would likely drive the yield to 0.25% to 0.50%. Analysis
Jun 24, 2020

Economic Roundup: Risks of a U.S. Fiscal Policy Error Remain Elevated
Additional stimulus is needed sooner, rather than later. Analysis
Jun 24, 2020

Risks Rise for State and Local Budgets: COVID Stress Test Update
The biggest question remains how much, if any, help is on the way. Analysis
Jun 24, 2020

CECL Q2: Anything but Ordinary
The recession of 2020 will go down in history for both its speed and magnitude. Analysis
Jun 23, 2020

FOMC's Long-Term Forecast for Fed Funds May Be Too High
With an aging demographic, the U.S. will struggle to have GDP above 2%. Analysis
Jun 23, 2020

Economic Roundup: Take New-Home Sales With a Grain of Salt
U.S. new-home sales bounced in May, but revisions to April were unfavorable. Analysis
Jun 23, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: The Pendulum Swings
Manufacturing optimism returned in full force. Analysis
Jun 23, 2020

U.S. Employment Outlook: Short but Not Sweet
The COVID-19-fueled downturn will be remembered for its breadth and depth, not the brief duration. Analysis
Jun 22, 2020

Spec-Grade Bond Yield Is Likely to Trend Lower
The Blue Chip consensus expects a convincing recover over the next 18 months. Analysis
Jun 22, 2020

Economic Roundup: May Was the Bottom for U.S. Existing-Home Sales
Sales should start rising again in June. Analysis
Jun 22, 2020

Early Results of the Paycheck Protection Program
U.S. states with more PPP loans have had less job loss, but other factors are at play. Analysis
Jun 22, 2020

U.S. Regional Outlook: Breaking the Free Fall
Stabilizing conditions provide welcome news after a disastrous April. Analysis
Jun 22, 2020

U.S. Regional Outlook: Ready, Set, Crawl
Stabilizing conditions provide welcome news after a disastrous April. Analysis
Jun 22, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 22, 2020
Nominal personal income likely dropped 8% in May after being boosted by fiscal stimulus in April. Analysis
Jun 21, 2020

This Week in the COVID Crisis
Overwhelming uncertainty regarding the virus is the principal reason the economy is unlikely to quickly kick back into high gear. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

Second-Quarter High-Yield Bond Offerings Set Record High
Many newly offered high-yield bonds are refinancing outstanding loans. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

Economic Roundup: State Reopenings Spark Uneven Rebounds
Nevada, Hawaii and Michigan had the highest unemployment rates in the U.S. in May. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

The Long Slog to Recovery
Our survey shows hard issues like childcare and concerns about COVID-19 could keep the U.S. labor market struggling for years. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: 'V' for Some, Not Others
The labor market remains troubled, suggesting the initial bounce in the economy will fade. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

Initial Takeaways From the Regional Employment Data
Surprising May numbers for U.S. come into focus and show limitations of aggressive reopening decisions. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

Discretionary Spending in U.S. Bounces Back
May retail sales gains were led by discretionary segments, but not apparel. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Business Reopenings Nearly Complete
Coronavirus cases are ticking up in more than a dozen states. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

Canada Weekly: BoC Gets Serious
The central bank is purchasing assets at a breakneck pace. Analysis
Jun 19, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Central Banks Step Up Policy
Indonesia and China announce rate cuts this week. Analysis
Jun 18, 2020

Markets Expect Narrower Gap Between High-Yield Downgrades and Upgrades
The number of U.S. high-yield net downgrades dropped from April's 214 to May's 90. Analysis
Jun 18, 2020

Economic Roundup: Despite Recent Optimism, Layoffs Still Mounting
While economic data signal modest improvement, the road ahead is long. Analysis
Jun 18, 2020

Holiday Weekend Fanned the Outbreak in Lenient States
Reopening state and local economies in the U.S. is a choppy process, and it comes at a cost. Analysis
Jun 18, 2020

U.S. Housing Market Remains Resilient, but Outlook Is Gloomy
Fiscal and monetary policy have softened the blow, yet negative effects will linger through 2021. Analysis
Jun 18, 2020

The Labor Market Is Not Driving Credit Quality
Defaults are not spiking with unemployment. Analysis
Jun 18, 2020

Consensus Views on Real GDP and Unemployment Rate Are Inconsistent
The unknown course of COVID-19 remains the biggest threat to the business outlook. Analysis
Jun 17, 2020

Economic Roundup: May Starts Don't Dash Housing's Potential V-Shaped Recovery
Permits were solid and point toward an increase in construction in June. Analysis
Jun 17, 2020

HEROES Act to the Rescue
This legislation would go a long way to ensure the nascent U.S. recovery remains intact and the economy returns to full employment more quickly. Analysis
Jun 17, 2020

Global Outlook: A Slow, Uncertain Recovery
The economic crisis has broadly peaked but will take years to unwind. Analysis
Jun 17, 2020

U.S. Census Hiring to Provide Needed Jobs
Hiring for temporary positions has been delayed but is likely to peak in August. Analysis
Jun 16, 2020

Stocks Surge as Retail Sales Badly Beat Expectations
May's sales were still down but by much less than April's contraction. Analysis
Jun 16, 2020

Economic Roundup: Retail Sales, Production Jump in May
Our high-frequency model now has second-quarter GDP tracking -39.7% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Jun 16, 2020

U.S. Housing Outlook: Inequality, Segregation Slow Prosperity
Income equality and racial integration are linked to faster house price growth. Analysis
Jun 16, 2020

U.S. Retail Sales Surged, but Levels Don't Lie
Sales rose 17.7% in May but remain well below that seen prior to COVID-19. Analysis
Jun 16, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Fed Stays the Course
Interest rates will remain at rock-bottom for the foreseeable future. Analysis
Jun 15, 2020

High Hurdle for Fed to Raise Rates
The 2020s may be home to record-low, decade-long averages for interest rates. Analysis
Jun 15, 2020

Economic Roundup: Unemployment Spills Into Food Stamps
Lawmakers should include more for SNAP in the next stimulus as it has a big multiplier. Analysis
Jun 15, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 15, 2020
The U.S. economy continues to turn the corner on the COVID-19 recession. Analysis
Jun 15, 2020

Food Stamp Participation Could Spike This Year in U.S.
Additional support for SNAP could be needed. Analysis
Jun 12, 2020

Economic Roundup: Rising Risk of a Second Wave
COVID-19 cases have been picking up globally and in the U.S. since late May. Analysis
Jun 12, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Seeds of Hope
The reopening of many U.S. state economies has led to a gradual economic pickup. Analysis
Jun 12, 2020

Canada Weekly: What's Moving the Labor Market?
An accelerated reopening may seem appealing, but the provinces should keep an eye on their neighbors to the south. Analysis
Jun 12, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Recession Is Over
The outlook is fraught with risk, as COVID-19 cases in the country are rising. Analysis
Jun 12, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Ready to Act
We've updated our policy assumptions for the June baseline. Analysis
Jun 12, 2020

What a Tumble in U.S. Consumer Spending
Real spending fell far more in two months than it did in the entire financial crisis. Analysis
Jun 11, 2020

Economic Roundup: Breadth of Downturn Still Coming Into Focus
Incoming economic data reveal the depths of the COVID-19-induced global recession. Analysis
Jun 11, 2020

How Will Temporary Layoffs End in the U.S.?
A surge due to COVID-19 is potentially distorting labor market outcomes. Analysis
Jun 11, 2020

U.S. Regional Economies Stabilize—For Now
UI claims stabilized broadly, but the risk of another wave persists. Analysis
Jun 11, 2020

Commercial Real Estate Continues Trek Down Rough Road
The U.S. market faces a significant correction in coming quarters. Analysis
Jun 10, 2020

Economic Roundup: The What and Why Behind Baseline Changes
We make a minor tweak to GDP, but have a slightly higher unemployment rate at the end of the year. Analysis
Jun 10, 2020

Core Inflation Does Something It Never Has Done Before
U.S. core CPI posts its first three consecutive monthly declines. Analysis
Jun 10, 2020

Not Our 'Beveridge' Of Choice
Enormous shift in the Beveridge curve doesn't mean U.S. structural unemployment is rising. Analysis
Jun 10, 2020

A Less Threatening Risk to the U.S. Economy
The stock market rally has shifted the wealth effect from a sizable drag to neutral for growth. Analysis
Jun 10, 2020

The Wild Card in Recent U.S Job Reports
The Paycheck Protection Program is estimated to have rescued 16 million small-business jobs. Analysis
Jun 09, 2020

Economic Roundup: Worst May Be Over for U.S. Labor
COVID-19-induced layoffs peaked in March and then abated in April. Analysis
Jun 09, 2020

Ultra-Low Yields to Sustain Growth of IG Bond Offerings
St. Louis Fed report hints at return of 6 million jobs. Analysis
Jun 09, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Recalibrating the Notion of ‘Good News'
Most indicators suggest the worst is over for now, but risks abound. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

Fed's Herculean Efforts Now Begin to Manifest
The unrivaled monetary stimulus could cause a rapid economic upturn. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

Economic Roundup: NBER Makes the Call
Recession officially began in February, but it could already be over. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 8, 2020
The recovery from the shock associated with COVID-19 will be a long, painful slog. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

Webinar Replay: Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
There are reasons to be cautious about the strength of an economic recovery. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

U.S. Macro Outlook: The Recession Is Over
Congress and the administration should come to terms and pass a fiscal rescue package before legislators leaves for their August recess. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

NBER Makes It Official, Says Recession Began in February
This will likely be the deepest and shortest recession on record. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

It's Official: Recession Began in February
This will likely be the deepest and shortest recession on record. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

It's Official: Recession Began in March
This will likely be the deepest and shortest recession on record. Analysis
Jun 08, 2020

FOMC Preview: Plenty to Unpack
The Fed will release its Summary of Economic Projections, but its crystal ball is blurred.

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