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Nov 20, 2024
Topic: Random IdeasSpeaker Associates is a speaking agency which has me in their catalog, and they asked me to record short videos answering a series of big questions. Here they are:
What are the most promising applications of augmented reality and virtual reality technology in fields like education, training, and entertainment?
What are the most effective ways to protect intellectual property in a rapidly evolving innovation landscape?
What are the key differences between innovation in startups versus established companies?
What are the key considerations for companies looking to develop and implement a successful digital transformation strategy?
What are the implications of generative AI for data privacy and security?
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Nov 14, 2024
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
When you have solar, you still pick a pricing plan for your electric utility. Here's some hints about how to do that. In California, it's less complex than expected.
Read more at Forbes.com in Got Solar, An EV And Net Metering? Here s Your Best Price Plan
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Nov 12, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo's service area is still 80 square miles (LA to Santa Monica) but now anybody can ride. It's another milestone.
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Robotaxi Now Open To All In Los Angeles
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Nov 07, 2024
Topic: PoliticsRobocarsTags: forbes
Musk won big (though thanks to Twitter it may have been no gamble.) But now will urban, blue riders avoid his robotaxis? What happens when the government flips again?
Read more at Forbes.com in Musk s Political Efforts Paid Off, What About For Tesla, Robotaxis?
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Nov 03, 2024
Topic: MediaPoliticsThe NYT "Needle" in 2016
The 2020 election showed that doing live reporting on election counts when the order of counting has a bias is misleading and emotionally draining. Of course, there is no actual "race" with totals moving back and forth, one candidate in the lead and then another. That's just an illusion created by the bias in the order. The result is actually a fixed fact after the polls close, and we're just uncovering different parts as time goes by.
It's a bit like scratching off a lottery card. The final result of the card is fixed, you just get some drama revealing bits of it at a time.
The press get good ratings and we can't stop them from reporting this, even when they know the reports are misleading. But instead of one number, there's really two numbers to show from partial results:
The best estimate of the final number based on your models and what data you have
The amount of uncertainty in that estimate (which you might show as a scalar, or as a distribution.)
As we know, Trump even worked to exploit that lie, known as the red mirage, to call the election into question. It's serious stuff.
This particular time, we the following large biases.
In person votes were usually counted before
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Oct 30, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo also just announced they are doing 150,000 rides/week. This internal research projects shows off some interesting abilities of LLMs and a different approach.
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Builds A Vision Based End-To-End Driving Model, Like Tesla/Wayve
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Oct 25, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo just closed a $5.6B funding round. Some of that will be used to grow the fleet, but is there a way to grow fleets with debt rather than equity finanancing?
Read more at Forbes.com in Custom Robotaxis Are Cool, But A Boring One, You Can Take To The Bank
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Oct 22, 2024
Topic: Going GreenRobocarsTags: forbes
Robotaxis have different charging needs than regular cars. Will they want Tesla's new promised wireless charging, or is battery swap made for them
Read more at Forbes.com in Tesla Wireless Charging, Swap And Robots How Will Robotaxis Recharge?
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Oct 19, 2024
Topic: PoliticsOk, No, the Republicans certain take first blame for not standing up to Trump when he took over their party. They have been cowards. But because of that failure, it fell to the Democrats to do what it takes to stop him returning to the White House, and the election remains a dead heat, which it shouldn't be, and only they could have stopped that. I hope they don't fail, but it shouldn't even be close.
Indeed, there is a great irony in that I very frequently see Democrats write, "I just can't begin to comprehend why this race is so close." The reason the race is so close is because they don't understand that. They have failed to understand why half the country (by electoral votes which are all that counts) wants to vote for a man like Trump, and why a large portion of them (way more than enough) are not voting for Trump, but against the Democrats. That's something under the Democrats' control -- they have less control over the MAGAs who support Trump because they like him.
I say "way more than enough" because in a 50-50 race, they only have to win over a few percent of voters in a few swing states to make the race not close any more. Now, there are a lot of reasons that the US 2 party system is usually very close to 50-50. It's not a coincidence -- parties adapt to try to win 51% of the vote (and victory) but they resist adapting more than that, and they're in a fight with an opponent who is doing the same thing. The result is chaotic, with power flipping back and forth, each side often immediately trying to undo what their nemesis did when
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Oct 17, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
How do all the robotaxi contenders compare with Waymo the leader? See it all in one graphic
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Timeline Also Ranks All Robotaxi Players, With Tesla In Last
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Oct 07, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesTesla has said their Oct 10 "We Robot" day will be one for the history books. But they are very far from having a working robotaxi you can bet your life on. So just what can they show off to live up to the hype? I've collected various speculations on what they might show off at Warner Brothers, in hopes of not disappointing.
Read it at Forbes.com in Since Tesla has no Robotaxi, just what will they show on Robotaxi day?
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Sep 29, 2024
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
The electric car revolution is well underway, but soon we ll also see the rise of the electric RV. There's a lot you can do to make trailers better
Read more at Forbes.com in Pebble s Electric Travel Trailer Can Hitch And Propel Itself
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Sep 23, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo might seek a backup if their planned Zeekr receives 100% tariffs from the White House, but probably not the Ioniq 5
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Rumored In Talks With Hyundai, While Motional CEO Leaves
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Sep 16, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Nuro was going to make a large fleet of custom delivery robots. Now it will licence its self-driving software stack to vehicles of all types, including passenger cars
Read more at Forbes.com in Nuro Switches From Delivery Business To Driver Provider
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Sep 16, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
The lastest Waymo safety data throws down a gauntlet in front of other companies to publish similar data, and helps regulators measure risk.
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo s New Safety Data Is Impressive And Teaches A Lesson
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Sep 12, 2024
Topic: PoliticsI made this graphic because I find the information collected in it striking. How did Trump get control of the GOP when every single former VP or Presidential nominee living or recently deceased (except Palin) opposes him?
"
Republicans should be asking this, and about how to get their party back. These senior Republicans, nominees and Trump Cabinet members, are just some of hundreds who have come forward. Almost all who come forward though, are those who have left the "game" and are free to speak their own minds. The others saw what happened to Liz Chaney and others.
This graphic asks Republican questions ideally. Most of those I know supporting Trump don't like him but feel that Harris and the Democrats must be stopped. The question for the party is, is that worth giving up the soul of the party. They would rather have somebody other than Trump, but if he's all they have, they will vote for him to meet the higher priority goal of stopping the Democrats. But these leaders of the party, who are free to speak their minds, don't think it's worth that trade off. The GOP must investigate why.
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Sep 07, 2024
Topic: Air TravelPhotographyThe pixel's night mode was able to capture the Starliner coming over Mexico, with stars
Last night I watched the Boeing Starliner re-enter from an (Airbus) Airliner over southern New Mexico. Here's a photo and video shot from a plane window with my phone (!). The story of how I was there involves amazing luck. I was flying from Tampa to San Jose, but when I looked at my earlier flight it was packed full, so I found I could get a flight landing 50 minutes later for $22 less with lots of empty seats. I switched, but it turns out the two legs (on two planes) were tagged with the same flight number and it took half an hour on the phone to make things work. I was regretting it but took it.
Then in Houston I got a first class upgrade so feeling better, but the plane was too empty and the rebalancing software was crashing so they spent 45 minutes figuring it out old-school. Due to that delay I learned from Kathryn Myronuk that the trajectory of the Starliner should come close to my new flight. At first we were going to miss it but the tarmac delay had us intersect it perfectly. I informed the flight crew, who announced when they saw it coming over Mexico. I was on the starboard side but due to the light plane I went back to coach to grab a port window for a great vi
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Aug 30, 2024
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
The oldest rail line in the western U.S. has gone electric, but data released suggest the old one used more fuel than giving each rider a Hummer. How can that be solved?
Read more at Forbes.com in Caltrain s Great New Electric Trains Replace Heavy Polluters
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Aug 24, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
A short term partnership will help both companies learn. But the question of a long-term partnership is much more complex.
Read more at Forbes.com in In 2025, You May Call A GM/Cruise Robotaxi On Uber. How About 2030?
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Aug 20, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo says it's new 6th generation driver has significantly reduced cost. A robotaxi can end up cheaper than a regular car. Here's a list what it doesn't need.
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo s 6th-Generation Robotaxi Is Cheaper. How Cheap Can They Go?
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Aug 18, 2024
Topic: PoliticsTo my various Republican and conservative friends, it's time to talk about Donald Trump. In particular it's time for hard thinking on whether, for the sake of the GOP and conservatism, it's past time to cut him loose. Not for any of the arguments made by your leftie friends, but because it's the right thing for you. It's also time to leave the sinking ship.
To quote Lindsay Graham, back when he spoke his true mind about it, "If Donald Trump carries the banner of my party. I think it taints conservatism for generations to come." Graham isn't the only one who has said this or used to say this. An astonishing fraction of conservatives who worked in the Trump White House have said worse, even published books about it. You can discount a few as sour grapes, but there's far too many of them. Even Mike Pence, John Bolton, Mark Esper and his Chief of Staff John Kelly. Dick Cheney has called him the "greatest threat to our republic." And of course, what J.D. Vance said about Trump before he decided Trump could be his path to power. There's been nothing like this before, which should wake people up.
Look at this list and note it was made after Trump took near-total control of the party. (Bush has sworn to be apolitical but nobody doubts his feelings.) Not just them but multiple close relatives, Mark Burnett (who made Trump, as producer of the Apprentice) and Tony Schwartz, the ghostwriter of "The Art of the Deal." Of all past nominees a
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Aug 13, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Tesla doesn't have robotaxi software yet, and it's done almost nothing on robotaxi logistics. But it might be able to launch early with a cheaper, greener Uber style ride.
Read more at Forbes.com in Could Tesla Run A Robotaxi With Human Operators Inside?
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Aug 11, 2024
Topic: MediaIn the young Olympic event of "speed climbing," Sam Watson (USA) set two new world records, breaking his own previous world record. For that, he got the Bronze medal. The reason he did relates to some concepts I have been mulling over about what makes a good spectator event. The Olympics are the rare time when a whole bunch of sports that are generally relatively obscure become big-audience, big-advertising events. Spectator sports are sports as entertainment, but they are also still athletic.
Watson got the bronze because speed climbing is run in the "pyramid" or "playoff" style where two climbers "race" and the winner of the race advances or gets a point. This is a common style used in lots of sports, and in most of the "mega" spectator sports that get 90% of the audiences and money (Football, Baseball, Basketball, Hockey, American Football, Cricket etc.) Watson set one new WR in the early rounds, but he had a minor stumble in the semi-finals so he missed the gold medal "round" and in his bronze metal match set a new WR that was not matched in the official goal medal match.
The problem is this -- there's really no "match" aspect to this particular sport. The two climbers are really just racing against a clock, and the fastest time wins. They rarely glance at their opponent, and while they may have some peripheral perception, in a good run they are racing only the clock. (If an opponent has a very poor run, and falls or stumbles majorly, a climber might notice that and slow down and be more careful, now that a win is assured for them if they
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Aug 05, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Making a working self-driving car is hard, but there's a ton more to do to open a robotaxi service area. Here's an outline of the surprisingly long list of things.
Read more at Forbes.com in So You ve Built A Robotaxi, Now Where s Your Infrastructure?
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Aug 04, 2024
Topic: MediaA few days ago, I wrote about Olympics Streaming and the challenge of quickly navigating around streaming/downloaded sports programs with typical streaming or cloud DVR services.
I tend to make heavy use of "jump" buttons which skip forward or back amounts like 10, 15, 30 or 120 seconds. With a local disk DVR (and some very good streaming ones) this is done with super fast response time and a live preview, so it's easy to move around a program to what you want.
But what I did not discuss, and should, is just what do you want? The most common thing is to skip commercials, and some DVRS (typically those not under control of networks or cable providers) offer automatic commercial skip, or a button that seeks to the end (or start) of the commercial break. They even do this on near-live recordings. The problem is that TV shows don't want you to skip commercials, and work to get this feature out of DVRs. A solution that keeps everybody happier is to pay extra for commercial-free, though some things like sports can't do this as the live event has gaps for commercials.
With sports, though, there are tons and tons of short boring gaps, and that's really obvious in the Olympics. Indeed, there are too many, which can mean a complex UI. The best simple UI is usually a button or two that skips 10 to 30 seconds, with a "back" button that skips a shorter amount of time, so you can skip forward, and if you overshoot, go back 1-2 times. But why not be exact.
In hockey, for example, I
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Aug 01, 2024
Topic: MediaI cut the TV cord many years ago, and watch everything streaming or downloaded. When it comes to sports, though, particularly the Olympics, streaming and Cloud DVR don't remotely cut it, and so I record the over-the-air broadcast to a local disk using open source DVR software, and watch from my local disk, sometimes delayed just a few minutes to an hour from "live."
Once you watch that way, you can't go back. You can seek around instantly, and I mean instantly. If I press my "Forward 10 seconds" button it does it within milliseconds. Same for back. Rewind and FF run at many speeds, and up to 3x they are perfectly smooth. Up to 2x they are smooth and the audio is played, pitch-adjusted.
Sports are full of boring gaps, not just the commercials. And depending on your view of the sport, you may also decide to skip or speed up action. If it's my favourite sport I might watch it all, but otherwise you'll see me skipping long sections of a long road race, or all the points in a volleyball or tennis match until it gets closer to the decision. TV coverage that is edited down does this (and smarter) but it's also nice when you control it entirely and pick what you want. And you can watch a sport in less than half the time, even 1/10th the time if you want, which means you get to watch a lot more within your time budget.
Streaming doesn't work for this. While YouTube is fairly decent, most streaming and cloud DVR services have huge latency on any attempts to seek around or rewind/FF to the point of being unusable. With regular shows it's OK beca
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Jul 30, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Robotaxis may not look like old-school cars. What will be their key innovative features, and what is Tesla likely to show in their October concept reveal?
Read more at Forbes.com in What Hardware Features Make A Robotaxi, And What Will Tesla Do?
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Jul 23, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Canceling the Origin is a sad moment for Cruise, but it's the right decision on their path to rebirth. Get the software right, then do the hardware.
Read more at Forbes.com in GM s Cruise Kills Its Custom Origin Robotaxi But It s Not All Bad
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Jul 22, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Some plan fleets of robotaxis. Others, like Tesla may expect private owners to hire out their cars into networks, like Ubers they don't have to drive. Which is best?
Read more at Forbes.com in Will Robotaxis Be Fleet-Owned Waymos Or Privately Hired Out Teslas?
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Jul 21, 2024
Topic: PoliticsIn election season, we regularly see references in the USA to "The popular vote" as well as nationwide polls comparing presidential candidates. These are self-destructive, and ideally should be curtailed.
There is no popular vote in US election law. People talk about one because newspapers add up the 51 different races that are done and publish a number. People make several significant errors about this number. They talk about a candidate "winning" or "losing" this popular vote, which of course is not correct -- you can't win or lose a race you're not even trying to compete in, and no candidate does so.
Instead what people are probably interested in is a different number, "What the popular vote might be, if the USA had an actual popular vote race which determined a winner." Many people would prefer a popular vote to the electoral college, for fairly obvious reasons. Problem is that the newspaper published number is not that number and may not even be close to it. It might be possible to try to calculate the theoretical number people would like to use to compare, but at present nobody does that.
Many countries don't have a popular vote but sometimes report it. In Canada, in the last election the Liberal party got 32.6% of the unofficial "popular vote," and while there are people who lament this, there's actually much less consternation over this than what it seen in the USA when the electoral college has an opposite sense than either the fake popular vote or even a real one. The Liberals rule with a minority but came close to the ful
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Jul 15, 2024
Topic: Free SpeechTags: forbes
A busy pedestrian city core is common in Europe, and the jewel of any city, but US cities rarely make it work. Cars are banned but they also bring in pedestrians
Read more at Forbes.com in Europe s Pedestrian Downtowns Are Marvelous, But Cars Enable Them
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Jul 11, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
The market's upset that Tesla may delay their robotaxi reveal, but the truth is they are many years away from having a production robotaxi
Read more at Forbes.com in Tesla Delays Robotaxi Reveal. It s OK, It s Still Many Years Away
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Jun 07, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
If Tesla FSD-S does get that good, will it trigger "automation complacency" and create a danger?
Read more at Forbes.com in Elon Musk Predicts FSD-S Will Drive For A Year, But That s Dangerous
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Jun 05, 2024
Topic: TransportationTags: forbes
Manhattan's plan to charge up to $15 to drive downtown won't happen, but there are better, more high tech ways to do it.
Read more at Forbes.com in New York Governor Kills Congestion Pricing; Here s How To Do It Better
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Jun 04, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Tesla FSD has learned some antisocial behavior. But what if self-driving systems work together to make a more cooperative and social road?
Read more at Forbes.com in A Tesla With FSD-S Cut In Line, But Robocars Could Save Us From It
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Jun 03, 2024
Topic: InternetMediaRandom IdeasIt's time to radically scale back the postal service, by banning the mailing, on paper, of computer files.
The US Postal Service delivers 44% of the mail in the world. 127B total pieces of mail, plus packages, and 46B pieces of first class mail (down from 103B at the peak) of which 13B are "single piece" first class mail with a stamp. That's a lot of trees and a lot of energy.
Last election, it became a political issue, because it carries ballots, and it's not just about mail, as it does a number of low-cost parcels, including, famously, some people's prescriptions. But it shouldn't be a political issue, not to the end of defending vast waste in order to support a few useful goals.
Almost every piece of mail (not a parcel) that I get is a computer printout. It's a file that was in somebody's computer, that they printed (or mass printed) and mailed to me, and I don't want that.
So my proposal is that any person with (or without) an address can register an e-Mail address to associate with it through the post office. Anybody who has a computer file to send to a physical address just check if that address has an associated e-mail, and if so, just send the file to the USPS to deliver. (The registered e-mails would not be public.) The USPS can even charge a fee, like a penny, for this. The sender can provide a return address or not, just like paper mail. This would count
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May 29, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
The National Highway Transportation Safety Agency is investigating 31 incidents involving the robotaxi company s vehicles.
Read more at Forbes.com in NHTSA Investigates More Waymo Incidents, But Should It?
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May 14, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Baidu, the tech company sometimes called the "Google of China" has a new robotaxi at half the price, and a plan for profits
Read more at Forbes.com in Baidu Launches New $28,000 Robotaxi In Wuhan
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May 14, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Cruise is Back, Waymo is doing 50,000 rides/week with nobody in the car, Motional lays off half their staff, and Tesla still teases a Robotaxi. It's interesting times.
Read more at Forbes.com in GM Cruise Comes Back In Phoenix, Waymo Soars, Motional Sinks
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May 08, 2024
Topic: Random Ideas
There's "uproar" in California over a new law that requires fees to be disclosed in prices, even at restaurants. Restaurants say that those which have a mandatory service charge (ie. non-optional tip) and other completely bogus fees like a 6% "employee health insurance fee" and similar will be punished because their prices are now going to look higher than other restaurants, and this will scare away customers, even though all they are being made to do is show the price the customer will pay.
People hate these hidden fees, found especially on hotel rooms, tickets and the like, so much that Joe Biden pledged to get rid of them in the State of the Union.
A nice simple rule could be, "If you advertise a price, then that is what the consumer pays" with the possible exception real government mandated taxes, which should be known but also clear to the customer.
Challenges come, though from "optional" and variable things like tips and shipping/delivery. This is what the restaurants are upset about. They make the tip mandatory, and so must list it under the new law, in other restaurants the tip is optional and thus not listed. And the tip is indeed technically optional. If you're ordering something with delivery, the delivery is not generally optional, though.
So I would propose the following. In the case of tip
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May 07, 2024
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
I recently rented a Tesla from Hertz, for an experience that tried to be wonderful but failed.
Read more at Forbes.com in Hertz Tesla Rental Imports Your Profile, And More, But Badly
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May 01, 2024
Topic: Going GreenRobocarsTags: forbes
What reasons could Tesla possibly have to laying off its entire Supercharger team when most consider it to be one of the company's prized jewels?
Read more at Forbes.com in How To (Barely) Make Sense Of Tesla Sacking Its Supercharger Team
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May 01, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Some day robots may roam the streets without cargo, just showing ads. What will we do about it?
Read more at Forbes.com in Serve Robotics Goes Public With Ad Plan; What Do Ads On Robots Mean?
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May 01, 2024
Topic: Going GreenRobocarsTags: forbes
Cars that go charge themselves are the ideal, and also a solution for the power grid, plugging themselves in when solar power is surplus and cheap
Read more at Forbes.com in Future Self-Driving EVs Must Plug Themselves In. How Will They?
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Apr 22, 2024
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
California's home solar net metering standards changed last year and crashed the solar industry. Could neighbors selling power to neighbors' cars fix it?
Read more at Forbes.com in California Supreme Court To Hear Home Solar Rate Case, And It s A Mess
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Apr 18, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Machine learning AI and large language models (similar to ChatGPT) are taking over software development at self-driving car companies
Read more at Forbes.com in Tesla, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox And Many Others Embrace New AI To Drive
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Apr 15, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
There's a lot Tesla has to do to make a robotaxi, but if they do, it might be a cheaper car to buy than a low cost EV
Read more at Forbes.com in Tesla Teases A Robotaxi And Other Big Changes
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Apr 14, 2024
Topic: PhotographyHere is an album of shots from the 2024 Eclipse, shot from Magog, Quebec (near Sherbrooke) after a long odyssey to avoid clouds, detailed below.
For best viewing, Go to Google Eclipse Photo Album
This eclipse, my 7th, was a major effort to assure clear skies and good photos. As the last domestic eclipse for ages, I decided to bring a LOT of gear to take photographs automatically while I watched.
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Mar 30, 2024
Topic: Best Of BlogPhotographyRandom Ideas
A total solar eclipse is the most spectacular natural phenomenon you can see on this planet. It's really that good. If you think the Grand Canyon, Niagara Falls, Banff or the Fjords of Norway are spectacular, you're right, but this beats them all. In fact, it's so good that even though I just hyped it so much, you'll still be impressed. But no photograph of it looks much like it at all, so instead I'll start by showing you a short clip of how people react to it that I recorded at my last eclipse.
I'm Brad Templeton, and while this channel is mostly about the future of transportation, I've seen six total eclipses, which is enough that I can give you some good advice on how to see one, in particular the one that crosses North American in April of 2024. I've also gotten some skill at photographing them, which will let me advise you on why you should never, ever try to photograph during the total phase, no matter how good you are at photography, and how you can come away with some good images nonetheless. Get ready to be followed by a Moon
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Mar 28, 2024
Topic: PoliticsPrivacyRandom IdeasDid you know that the Bible doesn't just condone abortion, it actually requires it in the case of infidelity, and gives (bad) instructions on how it is to be done? It's all in Numbers Chapter 5, starting at verse 11. I wonder if it would be possible to set up abortion clinics which perform abortions with a modernization of the method described in the Bible, for the subset of women who qualify. It would only help some women, but it would make it much harder for those fighting abortion rights for religious reasons to stop women getting abortions as described and required in the Bible, who are exercising their religious freedom.
In a biblical abortion, it's required when a husband is jealous and suspects his wife of infidelity. (It does not have to be the case, he just has to suspect it.) He takes her to the temple, and the priest explains how it will work and makes her take an oath saying "so be it."
He then gives her a drink, which he has explained will not harm her if she has been faithful, but will curse her and cause an abortion if she has been unfaithful.
The drink is holy water, mixed with dust from the floor of the tabernacle, and into which a scroll with the rules has been dipped. But imagine that prior to this procedure, the woman has received a prescription for a
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Mar 26, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
A serious Waymo incident turned out to be a mistake by a human remote assistance operator. How do the errors of people and robots differ, particularly to the public?
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Runs A Red Light And The Difference Between Humans And Robots
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Mar 22, 2024
Topic: MediaTags: science fictionYesterday, I declared in commemorating his life, that Vernor Vinge was the greatest SF author. Of course, there are many opinions on who might get that title, and a solid argument that there isn't just one, or one axis of what makes great SF.
To explain my claim, I want to describe why I read SF, and how I judge greatness in it. Those who read SF may read all sorts of other books (and should) but they have a reason why SF holds a particular attraction and value. While any great book should have great characters and great prose and a gripping story and bring you to new realizations about the world and "the human condition" SF readers seek even more. (This is true to an extent which causes mainstream critics to disparage SF, because readers are willing to accept less than the best of these other virtues in order to get SF that is great at being SF.)
All good fiction explores important issues and the consequences of certain hypotheticals -- "What if?" For most fiction, these topics are important but "ordinary" and concern that human condition, our lives, our emotions, our morals, our philosophy, our politics and many other things.
Speculative fiction asks "what if?" with the world itself. Imagine a world that isn't just ours (often just because it's in the future as is not yet
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Mar 21, 2024
Topic: FuturismMediaTags: science fictionI have received the sad news of the passing of the world's greatest science fiction writer, Vernor Vinge, who was also my friend and onetime collaborator. (And, I need to point out, it's pronounced Vin-gee.)
I don't bestow that title lightly Certainly with 3 Hugo awards for best novel he was one of the most decorated. Heinlein with 4 is far in the past. Willis is still writing, and Jemesin won her 3 for a great fantasy series but when it comes to what I think great real SF should do, Vernor was the top in my book. Some could argue others spun better prose, but when it come to exploring world-shaking ideas none were his equal.
His stories explored radical political theories and introduced us to a concept that's become a household word, "the signularity" -- a term that he coined. Many concepts of VR and cyberspace were unveiled in "True Names" and much thinking on networks and superhuman intelligence was born in A Fire Upon the Deep. The list goes on and on. Shortly after A Fire Upon the Deep came out I worked with Vernor to produce and publish a hypertext e-book of it which included all his author's notes while he was writing it, a rare chance to see inside the writer's mind.
His l
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Mar 20, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
A study said TNC drivers don't make minimum wage, including their idle time but Uber and Lyft say they'll leave once the city regulated fares. Here's the math.
Read more at Forbes.com in Are Uber and Lyft Right In Their Threat To Leave Minneapolis?
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Mar 05, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
San Mateo tried to fight them, but they've been quickly approved, and now can try their hand at really scaling up.
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Wins Permission For Major Expansion To Los Angeles, San Francisco Peninsula
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Mar 03, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
San Mateo tried to fight them, but they've been quickly approved, and now can try their hand at really scaling up.
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Wins Permission For Major Expansion To Los Angeles, San Francisco Peninsula
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Mar 01, 2024
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
Drivers of Ford electric cars gain access to Tesla s supercharger network, using an adapter provided free by Ford. Tesla can make sure not too many stalls are wasted.
Read more at Forbes.com in Tesla Blesses Fords At Superchargers Using Up Two Or Three Spaces
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Feb 27, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
The industry is slowing down its progress. Some will win and some will lose as this happens.
Read more at Forbes.com in Apple Reportedly Kills Car Project, Who Is It Good Or Bad For?
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Feb 06, 2024
Topic: Going GreenTransportationTags: forbes
Some cities want to discourage big, heavy vehicles. But could making them more available for short use actually result in fewer of them on the road?
Read more at Forbes.com in Paris Votes To Discourage SUVs, But Would Easier Renting Help?
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Feb 04, 2024
Topic: GovernanceMediaTags: science fictionhugo
The activities of the World Science Fiction Society, the unincorporated club which chooses the location of the annual World SF Convention (WorldCon) and the annual Hugo awards, have once again encountered a scandal, the 3rd in the last 8 years, and people aren't quite sure how to repair the damage and/or fix it long term. Below, I'll discuss many of the possible and proposed approaches.
You can skip ahead past this description of the odd way WSFS works.
TL;DR (Very Long) Folks could try to make what happened harder to happen. They could also try to make it more obvious and detectable and harder to cover-up. They could look for more general approaches to allow faster response to any sort of attack, not just this one. They could also install deterrents to make it less likely people would try things again.
For those unfamiliar, a good analog to the WorldCon might be the Olympics. The structure is somewhat different, but this can aid in understanding. The Olympic movement and its trademarks belong to a global organization called the International Olympic Committee. Cities an
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Feb 01, 2024
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
Do EVs work in the cold? Read about a long trip in snowy Utah, and how the best place to charge is at hotels, and how that should work
Read more at Forbes.com in Chicago EVs Froze As I Did An Easy Two Week Tesla Trip In Snowy Utah
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Jan 31, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Motional must rely on Hyundai for support, or find a new funder. I recount the history of self-driving projects and what this means going forward.
Read more at Forbes.com in Aptiv Pulls Support From Motional Robotaxi Joint Venture
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Jan 25, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Cruise has released reports from independent agencies that examined its crash with a pedestrian and the alleged cover-up of dragging. Lots of details
Read more at Forbes.com in Cruise Releases Independent Reports On Oct 2 Pedestrian Dragging Event
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Jan 22, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo has asked to serve large reasons in San Francisco and Los Angeles. Perhaps big enough for real experiments in car replacement, which is where robotaxis must go
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Plans Massive Robotaxi Service Area, But Not Massive Enough
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Jan 02, 2024
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
I outline what sort of data should be disclosed and what methods can assure that robocars are safe and we can understand how safe they are
Read more at Forbes.com in Buttigieg Seeks Robocar Safety. Here s How He Should Do It
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Dec 28, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
The biggest self-driving story of 2023 was the fall of Cruise. Here's in-depth analysis of that fall and where they might go
Read more at Forbes.com in Robocar 2023 In Review: The Fall Of Cruise
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Dec 01, 2023
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
They have $7B to spend, but previous subsidies caused a broken charging network. Here's how to do it better
Read more at Forbes.com in Does The Dept. Of Transport Know What To Do With $7B For EV Charging?
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Nov 19, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Vogt founded the company, sold it and returned to the helm. Here's analysis of his fall and what's ahead for Cruise
Read more at Forbes.com in Kyle Vogt Resigns As CEO Of GM s Cruise Robotaxi Unit
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Nov 08, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Cruise has listed steps they are taking during their shutdown. It's a start, but there needs to be even more
Read more at Forbes.com in GM s Cruise Dug Itself A Deep Hole; They Want To Show They See It
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Nov 07, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Reports said Cruise cars ask for remote help a few times an hour. It seems bad but it's not about safety, and it turns out it doesn't hurt commercial viability.
Read more at Forbes.com in Cruise Reports Lots Of Human Oversight Of Robotaxis, Is That Bad?
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Nov 02, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
A robotaxi dragged a woman after she was hit by another driver. What would happen if the case went to court?
Read more at Forbes.com in An Injury Lawyer Says What GM s Cruise Robotaxi Might Face After Dragging Woman
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Oct 30, 2023
Topic: RobocarsSolve thisTags: forbes
Cruise has lost trust. They need to be much more open to ever get it back. Here's things they could do to win trust.
Read more at Forbes.com in Cruise Suspends Robotaxi Operations, What They Must Do To Fix It
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Oct 26, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
It's good for Uber, but will Waymo want a relationship like this long term?
Read more at Forbes.com in You Can Summon A Waymo Via Uber, But Does It make Sense?
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Oct 24, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
A person was hit by another car and thrown in front of the Cruise. Then it stopped and dragged her while trying to pull over. The DMV says Cruise hid that.
Read more at Forbes.com in California DMV Shuts Down Cruise Robotaxis Due To Dragging Of Pedestrian
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Oct 23, 2023
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
Poor reliability is the bane of CCS car drivers, but there's also a lot of hassle in using 30 apps on 30 networks.
Read more at Forbes.com in Networks Say They ll Fix Broken Chargers, But What About Broken Billing?
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Oct 19, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
San Francisco wants to slow down robotaxi testing. That will slow down great benefits for the fire dept. and others, and rob from their future for minor gain today
Read more at Forbes.com in Cruise Robotaxi Improvements Mean Fire Department Burns Its Own House
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Oct 13, 2023
Topic: PhotographyThere is a partial/Annular solar eclipse in the USA on Oct 14. It's nothing like a total eclipse but if you are near it or in it you may enjoy it. But photographing the eclipse itself is not that exciting, so instead photograph the people watching it. In this video I outline some ideas on how to do that.
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Sep 27, 2023
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
A recent study detailed ways in which EV charging could cost more than gasoline. But in reality it generally costs much less
Read more at Forbes.com in Some Warn EV Charging Is Pricier Than Gasoline. Don t Let Them Fool You
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Sep 26, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
GM hopes for a million mile life from the Origin, but will it be obsolete before then? Many factors go into figuring out the right lifetime in miles and years.
Read more at Forbes.com in How Long Should A Robotaxi Last?
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Sep 20, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Robotaxis offer great benefit to the disabled, and the option to vastly reduce the cost of paratransit for public agencies
Read more at Forbes.com in Cruise Shows Origin Robotaxi With Wheelchair Ramp; Many Disabled Options Possible
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Sep 12, 2023
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
A trip on "The Loneliest Road in America" followed by the backroads of southern Utah s State Route 12 tests the limits of road tripping in an EV far from fast chargers
Read more at Forbes.com in Sometimes Harrowing Tales Of An EV Road Trip Far Off The Beaten Path
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Sep 09, 2023
Topic: Random Ideas
I went to Burning Man for 15 years, but stopped going. Of course I followed the events of the year of mud. It was curious to read all the mainstream press articles by people who clearly didn't understand the event at all. It's common for people to not understand it of course, and not surprising that it would be a big news story for 70,000 people to be "trapped" for a few days by anything. But I know from reading the accounts of my many friends there that it was no hellscape.
In fact, my first year on the Playa, in 1998, saw a soaking rain on Friday night. You could not walk 10 feet without getting stuck, all vehicle travel was shut down. We hunkered down but Saturday the sun returned and the lakebed dried out. Back then, the Man didn't burn until Sunday night, so it didn't interfere so much with people's plans. Indeed, it was an event to remember. Over the years there would be minor rains, though never a major rain on the key days. They came before the event, or after it, but everybody knew that some day a major rain would come at the worst time, interfering with the climactic burns or worst of all the exodus, when you try to squeeze most of the city down roads with the capacity for only about 1,000 cars/hour. 2023 had that, and it also had more rain than ever seen. That certainly put a major strain on everybody and the event, and did for many, seriously impair or ruin their experience. But so much that was written was based on myth.
No b
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Aug 22, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Analysis of how to judge and regulate the risk of robotaxi deployments and how to deal with Cruise
Read more at Forbes.com in Are Cruise Robotaxis Pushing Too Hard? Or Too Slow?
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Aug 19, 2023
Topic: TechnologyThe release of Oppenheimer has re-opened the recurring debate about the use of nuclear weapons on Japan. Was it necessary, atrocity or both? What other options were there. The question is examined both in full hindsight as well as considering it in the context of what they knew then.
You can read lots of analysis of the different arguments in many sources. There are arguments that Japan was already going to surrender, or that they surrendered more because of the Soviet invasion of Manchuria than the nukes, or would have surrendered without Nagasaki, or with just a demonstration as was proposed for Tokyo Bay by many of the scientists (but rejected by Oppenheimer.) There is the "standard" view, promoted by Truman and many others, that it was necessary to avoid a more ruinous invasion and the "shock and awe" to use our modern term allowed them to (in the words of Hirohito) consider the unthinkable. There is evidence for all the views.
I've been exploring some thoughts that are much less commonly discussed, which is not to say that they are strongly supported, but that they are interesting. These include the idea that the main value of the bombings, and possibly at least in part their intention, was to scare Stalin, not the Japanese. There are also a number of arguments why they should have bombed (or demonstrated) sooner, possibly much sooner, and some amazing and chaotic accidents of history and the timelines of the day. It is both an amazing coincidence and no accident that Stalin began his invasion literally a few hours before Na
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Aug 18, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Around 10pm Thursday evening, a San Francisco Fire Dept. ladder truck T-boned a Cruise robotaxi, making physical the accelerating battle between the SFFD and the robot...
Read more at Forbes.com in Cruise Robotaxi Hit By On Call Fire Engine. Is It The Fire Truck s Fault?
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Aug 17, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo shows off how well they handled a construction zone that Cruise botched. How should these vehicles perform here?
Read more at Forbes.com in Cruise Robotaxi Drives Into Wet Concrete; Waymo Shows Off Same Route
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Aug 17, 2023
Topic: Brad's RantRecently online is a new podcast interview with me from a Podcast called "Get Yourself Optimized"
We went over a lot of different topics that are interesting:
History of ClariNet and rec.humor.funny and internet censorship
EFF
I defend materialism -- the podcast host is fairly spiritual so we have a lot of friendly but direct banter on it
Data rights and privacy and the risks of cloud computing vs. desktop
How people manipulate you online (with advertising or even with subscription)
Of course some self driving cars
There is a transcript at the link, but it's "too smart" and has quite a few errors which make some things say the opposite of what was said, so you might want to double check the actual audio on them.
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Aug 17, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
With costs approaching $1/mile, Cruise (and Waymo) can start experimenting with the real economics of robotaxis
Read more at Forbes.com in Cruise Robotaxi Rides Will Be $3/mile, But They ll Get Better
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Aug 14, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
GM s Cruise robotaxi unit, hot on the heels of receiving its permit to charge for rides all day in San Francisco, did not have a good weekend.
Read more at Forbes.com in GM s Cruise Falls Down During Concert Cell Overload; Here s How To Fix It
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Aug 07, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
The robotaxi companies still haven't resolved differences with San Francisco, and they still aren't speaking the same lanaguage
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo/Cruise Butt Heads With San Francisco Officials Over Robotaxi Stall-Outs.
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Aug 04, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo announced today that it would shortly begin service in Austin, TX.
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo To Serve Austin; Cruise In Nashville And The Myth Of Geofences
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Jul 28, 2023
Topic: RobocarsI love a good debate, and here I debate one of the core questions -- will self-driving be mainstream within 10 years. On the negative side is Raj Rajkumar, a professor from CMU and one of the leaders of the CMU team that won the DARPA Urban challenge.
It's done as an Oxford debate with opening statements and rebuttals, plus 3 subsections on Tesla, Consumer cars and Commercial applications.
Tell me who won.
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Jul 27, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Waymo, largely considered the leader in the self-driving space, announced it was pausing its trucking efforts, known as Waymo Via.
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo Cancels Trucking The Same Week Aurora Raises $800M More For It
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Jul 26, 2023
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbes
Not long after several automakers agreed to switch to using Tesla s NACS charging plug and to have their customers charge at the Tesla Supercharger network, 7 major au...
Read more at Forbes.com in 7 Automakers Join To Build New EV Charging Network To Rival Tesla
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Jul 21, 2023
Topic: Transportation
A twilight launch is the most spectacular. This one didn't have the great timing of 2018s but it was still fun to watch. Here's a 4K video showing it in Cupertino. The rocket bursts into sunlight at about 2:45. See the description for full details.
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Jul 20, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
Elon repeated the claim of huge value in hiring out your car. But a taxi is more a consumable than an asset and the math doesn't work.
Read more at Forbes.com in Elon Musk Outlines How Teslas Will Be Worth Five Times What You Paid. Here s How His Math Is Wrong
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Jul 18, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
The CPUC will ask Waymo and Cruise for the data San Francisco has been keen to get but also give them the ability to promise to fix it
Read more at Forbes.com in California PUC To Quiz Waymo & Cruise About Their Problems With The City Of San Francisco
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Jul 14, 2023
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes
San Francisco is opposing and questioning the robotaxi services operating on its streets. The companies object and the debate heated up at the oldest self-driving event
Read more at Forbes.com in Waymo And Cruise Push Back In Battle With San Francisco
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Jul 11, 2023
Topic: RobocarsComing up next week join me and CMU professor and Darpa Grand Challenge winner Raj Rajkumar in a debate about the prospects for self-driving cars on the current technological roadmap in the next 10 years. I will argue for success and significant growth to many cities, Raj will argue that this won't happen without new approaches, if at all. Dan Levy from Barclays will moderate.
While this question has been considered by many advocates and critics of self-driving technology, it will be interesting and I hope informative to debate it with somebody with the experience of Raj. More information at this LinkedIN page and you can sign up to attend the video meeting at this page
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Jun 09, 2023
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesRight after Ford switched to NACS, GM has joined the party. With the top 3 US EV makers on NACS and CCS left with the foreign makers (and Stellantis which just started doing EVs) CCS is dead. Except for $7B in government subsidies. They ruined the CCS charging network, but maybe if they think about it, we can find a way to get this money to doing things the superior way Tesla did it without subsidies.
Read more about this in my new Forbes site article at GM switches to Tesla NACS, killing CCS. Now can we put Tesla in charge of all charging, please?
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