Nobody likes a down stock market - or do they?
Almost every conversation I have had with clients this year included some amount of fear over where the markets are and where they are headed. The concerns range from losing a few more percentage points (possible) to losing 100% of their money (absurd). If an investor in a moderate portfolio lost all their money because the stock market went to zero, you would have much bigger things to worry about than your money. There wouldn't be anything to buy with it anyway. You'd need to learn farming skills ASAP, because there would be no more stores to buy anything from. The world would have, for all intents and purposes, ended. So clearly this is not a rational fear.
SEE MORE The Good News About Recessions for Investors
On the other hand, could the markets drop to a level we saw before the July/August rally? Sure, it could. It could even go a bit lower.
The issue isn't that the market could go lower at any given point, the issue is what will it ultimately do? The answer to that question in the past has always been that it moved higher - eventually. As we know, markets go both up and down, but they have always trended higher. This time and the next 10 after it will ultimately be no different, regardless of the reason it goes down.
Bear Market Statistics Offer Reassurance
Since 1950, we have seen 11 bear markets (defined as a drop of at least 20% from its most recent high). The average duration of those bear markets was 13 months, and the average drop in the markets was -33%. By comparison, during that same time period, bull markets have lasted 67 months on average and experienced a total return of 265%. *
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