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We speak with two Iranian scholars ahead of an 8 p.m. ET deadline set by President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of all its power plants, bridges and other civilian infrastructure. Twelve hours ahead of the deadline, the president posted on social media, "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will."
Iran has blocked most maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war, leading to a sharp increase in oil and gas prices around the world. Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at the University of Tehran, and Zeynab Malakouti, a senior fellow at the Global Peace Institute at the National University of Singapore, say Iran is likely to maintain long-term control over the strait even after the fighting stops.
"While Donald Trump and the U.S. Army and the Israeli army are focused on the battle, Iranians are thinking about the war," says Eslami, adding that Iran has prepared for "at least three months of war," while rising oil prices will make it increasingly difficult for the U.S. to sustain the fighting.
"Iran sees the Strait of Hormuz as a longer-term strategic lever, especially for the postwar period," adds Malakouti, speaking from Shanghai.
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(Main headline, 5th story, link)
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The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has now entered its fourth week. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces is being felt worldwide, as shipments of oil, natural gas and fertilizer have been drastically curtailed. A fifth of the world's oil supply transits through the strait, and the price of oil is up by about 50% since the war began in late February.
On Saturday evening, President Trump threatened Iran on social media, saying he would "obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first," if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened within 48 hours. He later extended his deadline by five days following Iranian threats to destroy essential infrastructure, including energy and water systems, across the Gulf. Iran has denied reports of direct or indirect talks with the U.S.
If Iran can keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and "hold Washington to ransom," it will have significant leverage, says Alfred McCoy, professor of history at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "In a strategic analysis, Iran right now is in the dominant position."
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