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Mar 28, 2024
We expect that the core PCE deflator rose 0.3% again in February.
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Mar 28, 2024
The banking system is on solid ground but a sense of fragility remains.
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Mar 28, 2024
We expect that the core PCE deflator rose 0.3% again in February.
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Mar 27, 2024
The tragedy adds risk but does not fundamentally alter the U.S. or Maryland outlooks.
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Mar 27, 2024
Tuesday morning's tragedy creates risk but does not fundamentally alter the U.S. or Maryland outlooks.
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Mar 27, 2024
If OPEC decides not to wind down its production cuts, growth in global oil demand will have to be met by non-OPEC producers and existing inventories.
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Mar 26, 2024
Despite a strong labor market, consumer confidence remains in an extended holding pattern.
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Mar 26, 2024
Wild swings and atypical drivers have ended.
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Mar 26, 2024
How do we slice the economic pie?
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Mar 26, 2024
We expect the unemployment rate to edge up to 4% by the end of the year before peaking just above that in mid-2025.
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Mar 25, 2024
Sales fell slightly, but they remain on the high end of the pre-pandemic range.
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Mar 25, 2024
Congress and the White House signed a $1.2 trillion bill to fund the rest of the government through September.
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Mar 25, 2024
The runup in stock prices and housing values since the pandemic is eye-popping, reflecting the strong economy and helping to power it. But prices may be too pricey and vulnerable to a significant correction. Asset prices would quickly swing from providing a tailwind to growth to potentially undermining it.
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Mar 25, 2024
We expect performance to worsen, though much of the deterioration has already played out.
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Mar 22, 2024
The U.S. economic calendar closed with a whisper after the FOMC drew most of this week's attention.
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Mar 22, 2024
Fed policymakers are more upbeat about a soft landing than they were in December.
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Mar 22, 2024
Markets have been more reactive to certain economic releases than in prior periods.
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Mar 22, 2024
Tensions between the Biden administration and Texas mount as the border crisis intensifies.
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Mar 22, 2024
Despite a cooler-than-expected CPI report, rent growth is still piping hot.
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Mar 21, 2024
Wednesday's FOMC projections indicate the Fed considers recent CPI data more noise than signal.
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Mar 21, 2024
President Biden has the upper hand heading into the election.
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Mar 21, 2024
We consider two adverse scenarios for China's property market.
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Mar 21, 2024
The pandemic and its aftershocks have left scars, but damage has been uneven across the globe.
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Mar 20, 2024
As expected, the FOMC opted to leave the fed funds rate range unchanged at its March meeting.
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Mar 20, 2024
The White House has announced the biggest award yet, approximately $8.5 billion in direct subsidies to Intel along with up to $11 billion in loans.
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Mar 20, 2024
In our March baseline, rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2024 are slightly delayed, now beginning in June and with three instead of four by year's end.
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Mar 19, 2024
After a downbeat January, building activity roared back to life in February.
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Mar 19, 2024
Last week brought a higher-than-anticipated inflation report, but is it cause for concern?
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Mar 19, 2024
Housing services aren't the only thing boosting inflation, nor is inflation uniformly higher than pre-pandemic norms.
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Mar 18, 2024
U.S. lawmakers have yet to reach an agreement on the second batch of appropriations, while the Fed will likely hold interest rates steady.
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Mar 18, 2024
The relationship between hiring intentions and U.S. monthly job gains has broken down since the pandemic.
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Mar 18, 2024
How has the U.S. managed to slow inflation and avoid a recession?
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Mar 15, 2024
All eyes will be on next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
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Mar 15, 2024
A decline in expectations weighed on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
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Mar 15, 2024
Real GDP growth in the U.S. is tracking at 2.1% in the first quarter.
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Mar 15, 2024
Businesses bankruptcy filings reached a decade-long high in December 2023.
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Mar 15, 2024
CRE prices will fall short term, but the banking sector is prepared to weather the storm.
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Mar 15, 2024
Despite House passage, its fate is unclear in the Senate.
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Mar 14, 2024
After falling sharply to start off the year, retail sales moved higher in February.
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Mar 14, 2024
Early numbers indicate only a slight easing this year.
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Mar 13, 2024
After falling 0.8% in January, we expect U.S. retail sales bounce back in February.
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Mar 13, 2024
Security fears may spur massive immigration to the U.S.
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Mar 13, 2024
It feels like just yesterday that egg prices were soaring...because it was.
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Mar 13, 2024
It feels like just yesterday that egg prices were soaring...because it was.
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Mar 13, 2024
Household debt is stabilizing, but delinquencies are rising.
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Mar 12, 2024
For the second straight month, the consumer price index rose faster than expected.
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Mar 12, 2024
Lags and measurement issues with OER could lead to incorrect conclusions about inflation.
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Mar 11, 2024
Moody's Analytics expects inflation to moderate slightly in February.
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Mar 11, 2024
Last week's calendar was full of labor indicators, notably the jobs report and JOLTS.
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Mar 11, 2024
We expect headline and core CPI rose 0.3% in February.
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Mar 11, 2024
Determining the right time to stop the Fed's balance sheet drawdown is more art than science.
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Mar 11, 2024
Households across the income spectrum are trying to make sense of the economy's missed fundamentals and uncertain prospects.
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Mar 08, 2024
The February employment report was more of a mixed bag than recent months.
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Mar 08, 2024
February's key CPI report will come one week ahead of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
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Mar 08, 2024
A heady 275,000 jobs were added in February as January's figure was revised downward significantly.
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Mar 08, 2024
President Joe Biden announced a U.S. military effort to build a port off the coast of Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians.
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Mar 08, 2024
Spreads between both investment-grade and junk-rated corporate bond yields and U.S. Treasuries fell in February to their narrowest levels in more than two years, a sign of overall investor confidence growing.
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Mar 08, 2024
A midyear monetary policy pivot should reenergize the struggling economy, but potential delays amplify recession risks.
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Mar 08, 2024
February saw a large pickup in U.S. tax filings and a higher average refund.
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Mar 07, 2024
Following January's upside surprise, we expect 180,000 jobs were added in February.
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Mar 07, 2024
The percentage of workers leaving their jobs for other opportunities has normalized, but looks different across industries.
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Mar 07, 2024
We look for the economy to have added 180,000 jobs, on net.
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Mar 06, 2024
Fifteen states and American Samoa hosted primary elections on Tuesday, as the 2024 matchup is all but set in stone.
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Mar 06, 2024
New data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reveal some potential weakness.
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Mar 06, 2024
A policy error by the Fed remains the main risk to the outlook.
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Mar 05, 2024
As many headed to the polls, the economic calendar was light.
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Mar 04, 2024
The economic calendar began the week on a quiet note, as all eyes are fixed on Friday's jobs report.
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Mar 04, 2024
There's good news and there's other news.
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Mar 04, 2024
In policymakers' minds, the risk over cutting rates too soon outweighs the risk of waiting too long.
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Mar 01, 2024
Canadians are putting their own spin on 'revenge travel.'
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Mar 01, 2024
In the U.S., three disappointing datapoints closed out the week.
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Mar 01, 2024
February employment data will take on added importance given stronger than expected job gains in December and January.
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Mar 01, 2024
Negotiations are being led by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar, but have been slow.
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Feb 29, 2024
A slew of data released Thursday suggest consumers remain in a good position to spend.
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Feb 29, 2024
The short-term package would push the current funding deadlines back to March 8 and March 22.
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Feb 29, 2024
The latest update of our high-frequency model puts growth in the first quarter at 2.6% annualized.
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Feb 29, 2024
Exceptional, or just an extra day?
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Feb 29, 2024
Burdens will move very differently for different demographic groups, though even there it can be difficult to make generalizations.
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Feb 28, 2024
Changes in inventories and exports were led by autos, and oil inventories rose.
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Feb 28, 2024
The Fed will likely end quantitative tightening sometime next year.
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Feb 28, 2024
Corporate defaults declined in January, while the global speculative-grade 12-month default rate rose to the highest level since April 2021.
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Feb 28, 2024
There is still enormous work that must be done to achieve gender parity in the labour market.
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Feb 27, 2024
Conference Board consumer confidence took a step back for the first time since October.
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Feb 27, 2024
Is it too soon or too late to cut interest rates? What may be keeping the FOMC up at night?
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Feb 26, 2024
The market for new homes is performing well despite the lowest level of housing affordability in nearly four decades.
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Feb 26, 2024
The number of U.S. loan accounts and the value of auto loan books continued to grow year over year in 2023.
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Feb 26, 2024
How will the U.S. fix its housing crisis?
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Feb 26, 2024
Higher productivity would help the Fed out by offsetting higher inflation and letting up on wage pressures.
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Feb 26, 2024
Early-2024 data boost the prospects for a soft landing.
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Feb 23, 2024
Results from our model's latest update are slightly more favorable to President Biden.
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Feb 23, 2024
A brief look at some of the implications of Bill 96 on the jobs and labor market.
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Feb 23, 2024
We expect both PCE and core PCE inflation to have risen 0.3% in January.
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Feb 23, 2024
The U.S. president has found himself between a rock and a hard place when it comes to immigration policy.
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Feb 22, 2024
Existing-home sales moved up in January, but the outlook is cloudy.
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Feb 22, 2024
We provide monthly updates to our 2024 presidential election prediction to assess the impact of new economic data and changes in our U.S. national and state forecasts.
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Feb 22, 2024
Whichever metric is in view, the upcoming vote carries a fair bit of uncertainty and the results will be close.
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Feb 21, 2024
The clock is ticking before federal government funding runs out and Congress is on recess.
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Feb 21, 2024
Payback from the pandemic-generated surge in U.S. online sales is mostly over.
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Feb 21, 2024
What's the latest on the U.S. commercial real estate market?
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Feb 21, 2024
Economic growth should mend over 2024, but geopolitical risk will remain at the forefront.
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